Related papers: Forest Fire Model as a Supercritical Dynamic Model…
We introduce a new Self-Organized Criticality (SOC) model for simulating price evolution in an artificial financial market, based on a multilayer network of traders. The model also implements, in a quite realistic way with respect to…
From biotechnology to cyber-risks, most extreme technological risks cannot be reliably estimated from historical statistics. Therefore, engineers resort to predictive methods, such as fault/event trees in the framework of probabilistic…
Highly optimized tolerance is a model of optimization in engineered systems, which gives rise to power-law distributions of failure events in such systems. The archetypal example is the highly optimized forest fire model. Here we give an…
The purpose of this paper is to advance the understanding of the conditions that give rise to flash crash contagion, particularly with respect to overlapping asset portfolio crowding. To this end, we designed, implemented, and assessed a…
An important challenge in several disciplines is to understand how sudden changes can propagate among coupled systems. Examples include the synchronization of business cycles, population collapse in patchy ecosystems, markets shifting to a…
We investigate the predictability of extreme events in a dissipative Olami-Feder-Christensen model on a small world topology. Due to the mechanism of self-organized criticality, it is impossible to predict the magnitude of the next event…
Consider the following forest-fire model on the upper half-plane of the triangular lattice: Each site can be "vacant" or "occupied by a tree". At time 0 all sites are vacant. Then the process is governed by the following random dynamics:…
Let $T$ be a regular rooted tree. For every natural number $n$, let $B_n$ be the finite subtree of vertices with graph distance at most $n$ from the root. Consider the following forest-fire model on $B_n$: Each vertex can be "vacant" or…
The occurrence of aftershocks following a major financial crash manifests the critical dynamical response of financial markets. Aftershocks put additional stress on markets, with conceivable dramatic consequences. Such a phenomenon has been…
The understanding and prediction of large wildland fire events around the world is a growing interdisciplinary research area advanced rapidly by development and use of computational models. Recent models bidirectionally couple computational…
In nature self-organized systems as flock of birds, school of fishes or herd of sheeps have to deal with the presence of external agents such as predators or leaders which modify their internal dynamic. Such situations take into account a…
We consider a general tractable model for default contagion and systemic risk in a heterogeneous financial network, subject to an exogenous macroeconomic shock. We show that, under some regularity assumptions, the default cascade model…
Systemic risk is a rapidly developing area of research. Classical financial models often do not adequately reflect the phenomena of bubbles, crises, and transitions between them during credit cycles. To study very improbable events,…
The statistics of natural catastrophes contains very counter-intuitive results. Using earthquakes as a working example, we show that the energy radiated by such events follows a power-law or Pareto distribution. This means, in theory, that…
In physics, I noticed subjects not explained by formulas were often not studied, like how uncontrolled growth systems changed form. Weather, businesses, societies, environments, communities, cultures, groups, relationships, lives, and…
Using Croatian data and the IMF's Natural Disaster Debt Dynamic Tool, this paper assesses how public debt adjusts to extreme events in a small open economy. We compare debt paths under baseline and stress scenarios, the latter simulating a…
Investigation of the critical levels and catastrophes in the complex systems of different nature is useful and perspective. Mathematical modeling and analysis is presented for revealing and investigation of the phenomena and critical levels…
The increasing intensity and frequency of wildfires are causing significant economic and societal impacts on communities through direct effects on the built environment, particularly critical infrastructure. Electrical systems can both…
Models of how things spread often assume that transmission mechanisms are fixed over time. However, social contagions--the spread of ideas, beliefs, innovations--can lose or gain in momentum as they spread: ideas can get reinforced, beliefs…
In this chapter of the e-book "Self-Organized Criticality Systems" we summarize some theoretical approaches to self-organized criticality (SOC) phenomena that involve percolation as an essential key ingredient. Scaling arguments, random…