Related papers: Forest Fire Model as a Supercritical Dynamic Model…

The credit crisis roiling the world's financial markets will likely take years and entire careers to fully understand and analyze. A short empirical investigation of the current trends, however, demonstrates that the losses in certain…

Reliable estimates of indirect economic losses arising from natural disasters are currently out of scientific reach. To address this problem, we propose a novel approach that combines a probabilistic physical damage catastrophe model with a…

Forest-fire and avalanche models support the notion that frequent catastrophes prevent the growth of very large populations and as such prevent rare large-scale catastrophes. We show that this notion is not universal. A new model class…

Are large biological extinctions such as the Cretaceous/Tertiary KT boundary due to a meteorite, extreme volcanic activity or self-organized critical extinction cascades? Are commercial successes due to a progressive reputation cascade or…

We include immunity against fire as a new parameter into the self-organized critical forest-fire model. When the immunity assumes a critical value, clusters of burnt trees are identical to percolation clusters of random bond percolation. As…

We study the long-time dynamics of a forest-fire model with deterministic tree growth and instantaneous burning of entire forests by stochastic lightning strikes. Asymptotically the system organizes into a coarsening self-similar mosaic of…

We investigate a random--neighbours version of the two dimensional non-conserving earthquake model of Olami, Feder and Christensen [Phys. Rev. Lett. {\bf 68}, 1244 (1992)]. We show both analytically and numerically that criticality can be…

We propose a general scenario to analyze social and economic changes in modern environments. We illustrate the ideas with a model that incorporating the main trends is simple enough to extract analytical results and, at the same time,…

A model of an evolving network of interacting molecular species is shown to exhibit repeated rounds of crashes in which several species get rapidly depopulated, followed by recoveries. The network inevitably self-organizes into an…

Growing awareness of the impact of business activity on the environment increases the pressure on governing bodies to address this issue. One possibility is to encourage or force the market into green behaviours. However, it is often hard…

Localized shocks arising from climate extremes, geopolitical conflicts, and trade protectionism cascade through trade networks, triggering global food crises. Cross-product substitution, a critical response strategy, induces cross-product…

It is a common belief that power-law distributed avalanches are inherently unpredictable. This idea affects phenomena as diverse as evolution, earthquakes, superconducting vortices, stock markets, etc; from atomic to social scales. It…

This paper provides a framework for modeling financial contagion in a network subject to fire sales and price impacts, but allowing for firms to borrow to cover their shortfall as well. We consider both uncollateralized and collateralized…

Bank's asset fire sales and recourse to central bank credit are modelled with continuous asset liquidity, allowing to derive the liability structure of a bank. Both asset sales liquidity and the central bank collateral framework are modeled…

We develop a discrete-event modeling framework that captures the progression of geophysical systems toward catastrophic failure through sequences of distinct damage events. By representing system evolution as a succession of temporally…

The recent financial crisis of 2008 and the 2011 indebtedness of Greece highlight the importance of understanding the structure of the global financial network. In this paper we set out to analyze and characterize this network, as captured…

Since Self-Organised Criticality (SOC) was introduced in 1987, both the nature of the self-organisation and the criticality remains controversial. Recent observations on rain precipitation and brain activity suggest that real systems…

Scale invariance, collective behaviours and structural reorganization are crucial for portfolio management (portfolio composition, hedging, alternative definition of risk, etc.). This lack of any characteristic scale and such elaborated…

External or internal shocks may lead to the collapse of a system consisting of many agents. If the shock hits only one agent initially and causes it to fail, this can induce a cascade of failures among neighoring agents. Several critical…

We investigate numerically the Self Organized Criticality (SOC) properties of the dissipative Olami-Feder-Christensen model on small-world and scale-free networks. We find that the small-world OFC model exhibits self-organized criticality.…