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Related papers: On the predictability of rogue events

200 papers

Ocean dynamics constitute a source of incertitude in determining the ocean's role in complex climatic phenomena. Current observation systems have limitations in achieving sufficiently statistical precision for three-dimensional oceanic…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-01-28 Van-Khoa Nguyen , Santiago Agudelo

Nonlinear dynamical systems are ubiquitous in nature and they are hard to forecast. Not only they may be sensitive to small perturbations in their initial conditions, but they are often composed of processes acting at multiple scales.…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2025-10-06 Chenyu Dong , Davide Faranda , Adriano Gualandi , Valerio Lucarini , Gianmarco Mengaldo

Advances in machine learning have revolutionized capabilities in applications ranging from natural language processing to marketing to health care. Here, we demonstrate the efficacy of machine learning in predicting chaotic behavior in…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2020-02-28 Hiromi Yasuda , Koshiro Yamaguchi , Yasuhiro Miyazawa , Richard Wiebe , Jordan R. Raney , Jinkyu Yang

Two numerical methods are proposed for detection of coupling between multiple time series generated by deterministic nonlinear systems. The first detects interdependence or the existence of coupling between time series. The second…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2025-05-07 Timothy Sauer , George Sugihara

The identification of complex periodic windows in the two-dimensional parameter space of certain dynamical systems has recently attracted considerable interest. While for discrete systems, a discrimination between periodic and chaotic…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2011-03-03 Yong Zou , Reik V. Donner , Jonathan F. Donges , Norbert Marwan , Jürgen Kurths

This work proposes a robust data-driven predictive control approach for unknown nonlinear systems in the presence of bounded process and measurement noise. Data-driven reachable sets are employed for the controller design instead of using…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-07-18 Mahsa Farjadnia , Amr Alanwar , Muhammad Umar B. Niazi , Marco Molinari , Karl Henrik Johansson

The occurrence of extreme (rogue) waves in the ocean is for the most part still shrouded in mystery, as the rare nature of these events makes them difficult to analyze with traditional methods. Modern data mining and machine learning…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-08-13 Dion Häfner , Johannes Gemmrich , Markus Jochum

We present a theoretical study of extreme events occurring in phononic lattices. In particular, we focus on the formation of rogue or freak waves, which are characterized by their localization in both spatial and temporal domains. We…

Pattern Formation and Solitons · Physics 2018-09-19 E. G. Charalampidis , J. Lee , P. G. Kevrekidis , C. Chong

In this brief report we study numerically the spontaneous emergence of rogue waves in (i) modulationally unstable plane wave at its long-time statistically stationary state and (ii) bound-state multi-soliton solutions representing the…

Pattern Formation and Solitons · Physics 2022-12-09 D. S. Agafontsev , A. A. Gelash

Extreme events, or rogue waves, are high-amplitude, rare occurrences that emerge across diverse physical systems and often defy conventional statistical predictions. While optical systems provide a controlled setting for studying these…

Optics · Physics 2026-02-04 T. Wang , Z. Li , Y. Ma , J. Huang , Y. Li , Z. Tu , S. Xiang , G. Ruocco , Y. Hao

A central area of research in nonlinear science is the study of instabilities that drive the emergence of extreme events. Unfortunately, experimental techniques for measuring such phenomena often provide only partial characterization. For…

Computational Physics · Physics 2018-06-19 Mikko Närhi , Lauri Salmela , Juha Toivonen , Cyril Billet , John M. Dudley , Goëry Genty

Spatiotemporal chaotic systems are difficult to characterize in a model-free manner because of their high dimensionality, strong nonlinearity, and sensitivity to initial conditions. Coupled map lattices, as a representative class of…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2026-04-15 Xiaoqi Lei , Zixiang Yan , Jian Gao , Yueheng Lan , Jinghua Xiao

In multi-component systems, several rogue waves can be simultaneously excited using simple initial conditions in the form of a plane wave with a small amplitude single-peak perturbation. This is in drastic contrast with the case of…

Pattern Formation and Solitons · Physics 2022-03-09 Chong Liu , Shao-Chun Chen , Xiankun Yao , Nail Akhmediev

Numerical simulations of the recently derived fully nonlinear equations of motion for weakly three-dimensional water waves [V.P. Ruban, Phys. Rev. E {\bf 71}, 055303(R) (2005)] with quasi-random initial conditions are reported, which show…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2009-11-11 Victor P. Ruban

Rogue waves are intense and unexpected wavepackets ubiquitous in complex systems. In optics, they are promising as robust and noise-resistant beams for probing and manipulating the underlying material. Localizing large optical power is…

Optics · Physics 2023-03-09 D. Pierangeli , G. Perini , V. Palmieri , I. Grecco , G. Friggeri , M. Papi , E. DelRe , C. Conti

Chaotic systems which are due to nonlinearity have attracted a great concern in the current world and chaotic models. Systems for a wide range of operation conditions have their application in almost all branches of engineering and science.…

Physics and Society · Physics 2022-09-09 Amin Gasmi

Rogue waves are extreme ocean events characterized by the sudden formation of anomalously large crests, and remain an important subject of investigation in oceanography and mathematics. A central problem is to quantify the probability of…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2026-03-31 Massimiliano Berti , Ricardo Grande , Alberto Maspero , Gigliola Staffilani

Although deterministic chaos has been predicted to occur in the triply resonant optical parametric oscillator (TROPO) fifteen years ago, experimental evidence of chaotic behavior in this system has been lacking so far, in marked contrast…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2009-11-10 Axelle Amon , Marc Lefranc

Extreme-event predictability in turbulence is strongly state dependent, yet event-by-event predictability horizons are difficult to quantify without access to governing equations or costly perturbation ensembles. Here we train an…

Chaotic Dynamics · Physics 2026-03-17 Yuxuan Yang , Chenyu Dong , Gianmarco Mengaldo

We present a general framework to predict precursors to extreme events in turbulent dynamical systems. The approach combines phase-space reconstruction techniques with recurrence matrices and convolutional neural networks to identify…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2025-08-07 Rahul Agarwal , Mustafa A. Mohamad