Extreme Event Precursor Prediction in Turbulent Dynamical Systems via CNN-Augmented Recurrence Analysis
Abstract
We present a general framework to predict precursors to extreme events in turbulent dynamical systems. The approach combines phase-space reconstruction techniques with recurrence matrices and convolutional neural networks to identify precursors to extreme events. We evaluate the framework across three distinct testbed systems: a triad turbulent interaction model, a prototype stochastic anisotropic turbulent flow, and the Kolmogorov flow. This method offers three key advantages: (1) a threshold-free classification strategy that eliminates subjective parameter tuning, (2) efficient training using only recurrence matrices, and (3) ability to generalize to unseen systems. The results demonstrate robust predictive performance across all test systems: 96\% detection rate for the triad model with a mean lead time of 1.8 time units, 96\% for the anisotropic turbulent flow with a mean lead time of 6.1 time units, and 93\% for the Kolmogorov flow with a mean lead time of 22.7 units.
Cite
@article{arxiv.2508.04301,
title = {Extreme Event Precursor Prediction in Turbulent Dynamical Systems via CNN-Augmented Recurrence Analysis},
author = {Rahul Agarwal and Mustafa A. Mohamad},
journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2508.04301},
year = {2025}
}