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Studying the ambient solar wind, a continuous pressure-driven plasma flow emanating from our Sun, is an important component of space weather research. The ambient solar wind flows in interplanetary space determine how solar storms evolve…
Utilizing the information in observations of a complex system to make accurate predictions through a quantitative model when observations are completed at time $T$, requires an accurate estimate of the full state of the model at time $T$.…
Dispersive delays due to the Solar wind introduce excess noise in high-precision pulsar timing experiments, and must be removed in order to achieve the accuracy needed to detect, e.g., low-frequency gravitational waves. In current pulsar…
Aims. We report the small temporal variation of the axial dipole moment near the solar minimum and its application to the solar cycle prediction by the surface flux transport (SFT) model. Methods. We measure the axial dipole moment using…
Astrometry of pulsars, particularly their distances, serves as a critical input for various astrophysical experiments using pulsars. Pulsar timing is a primary approach for determining a pulsar's position, parallax, and distance. In this…
Model simulations of solar irradiance reaching the Earth's surface during a solar eclipse constitute a useful tool for studying the impact of this phenomenon on the radiance propagation through the atmosphere. A simple approach to extend…
This paper estimates local tornado risk from records of past events using statistical models. First, a spatial model is fit to the tornado counts aggregated in counties with terms that control for changes in observational practices over…
During the last decades, international attempts have been made to develop realistic space weather prediction tools aiming to forecast the conditions on the Sun and in the interplanetary environment. These efforts have led to the development…
Variational Data Assimilation (DA) has enabled huge improvements in the skill of operational weather forecasting. In this study, we use a simple solar-wind propagation model to develop the first solar-wind variational DA scheme. This scheme…
We investigate the performance of six methods for predicting the CME time of arrival (ToA) and velocity at Earth using a sample of nine Earth-impacting CMEs between May 2010 and June 2011. The CMEs were tracked continuously from the Sun to…
High-precision pulsar timing requires accurate corrections for dispersive delays of radio waves, parametrized by the dispersion measure (DM), particularly if these delays are variable in time. In a previous paper we studied the Solar-wind…
Monitoring of the Sun and its activity is a task of growing importance in the frame of space weather research and awareness. Major space weather disturbances at Earth have their origin in energetic outbursts from the Sun: solar flares,…
Solar flares, as one of the most prominent manifestations of solar activity, have a profound impact on both the Earth's space environment and human activities. As a result, accurate solar flare prediction has emerged as a central topic in…
We present the implementation of coupling the EUropean Heliospheric FORcasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) and the improved Particle Acceleration and Transport in the Heliosphere (iPATH) model and simulate the widespread solar energetic…
The prediction of the arrival time for fast coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and their associated shocks is highly desirable in space weather studies. In this paper, we use two shock propagation models, i.e. Data Guided Shock Time Of Arrival…
We study the pulsar timing properties and the data analysis methods during glitch recoveries. In some cases one first fits the time-of-arrivals (TOAs) to obtain the "time-averaged" frequency $\nu$ and its first derivative $\dot\nu$, and…
There are many proposed prediction methods for solar cycles behavior. In a previous paper we updated the full-shape curve prediction of the current solar cycle 24 using a non-linear dynamics method and we compared the results with the…
Stochastic methods are a crucial area in contemporary climate research and are increasingly being used in comprehensive weather and climate prediction models as well as reduced order climate models. Stochastic methods are used as…
Although the sun is really far away from us, some solar activities could still influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems on Earth. Those time-varying conditions in space caused by the…
As the use of solar power increases, having accurate and timely forecasts will be essential for smooth grid operators. There are many proposed methods for forecasting solar irradiance / solar power production. However, many of these methods…