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Variations in the solar wind density introduce variable delays into pulsar timing observations. Current pulsar timing analysis programs only implement simple models of the solar wind, which not only limit the timing accuracy, but can also…

Real-world time series often exhibit a non-stationary nature, degrading the performance of pre-trained forecasting models. Test-Time Adaptation (TTA) addresses this by adjusting models during inference, but existing methods typically update…

This paper proposes a novel online evaluation protocol for Test Time Adaptation (TTA) methods, which penalizes slower methods by providing them with fewer samples for adaptation. TTA methods leverage unlabeled data at test time to adapt to…

Solar activity drives space weather, affecting Earth's magnetosphere and technological infrastructure, which makes accurate solar flare forecasting critical. Current space weather models under-utilize multi-modal solar data, lack iterative…

Time-of-arrival (TOA) measurements of pulses from pulsars are conventionally made by a template matching algorithm that compares a profile constructed by averaging a finite number of pulses to a long-term average pulse shape. However, the…

Tempo2 is a new software package for the analysis of pulsar pulse times of arrival. In this paper we describe in detail the timing model used by tempo2, and discuss limitations on the attainable precision. In addition to the intrinsic…

We use Renewal Theory for the estimation and interpretation of the flare rate from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) soft X-ray flare catalogue. It is found, that in addition to the flare rate variability with the…

Many rare weather events, including hurricanes, droughts, and floods, dramatically impact human life. To accurately forecast these events and characterize their climatology requires specialized mathematical techniques to fully leverage the…

Characterizing the PSF of adaptive optics instruments is of paramount importance both for instrument design and observation planning/optimization. Simulation software, such as PASSATA, have been successfully utilized for PSF…

We present a comparison of two methods of fitting solar-like variability to increase the efficiency of detection of Earth-like planetary transits across the disk of a Sun-like star. One of them is the harmonic fitting method that coupled…

Modern mobile applications such as navigation services and ride-sharing platforms rely heavily on geospatial technologies, most critically predictions of the time required for a vehicle to traverse a particular route, or the so-called…

The primary goal of the pulsar timing array projects is to detect ultra-low-frequency gravitational waves. The pulsar data sets are affected by numerous noise processes including varying dispersive delays in the interstellar medium and from…

There is a growing appreciation that the environmental conditions that we call space weather impact the technological infrastructure that powers the coupled economies around the world. With that comes the need to better shield society…

Physics-based solar cycle predictions provide an effective way to verify our understanding of the solar cycle. Before the start of cycle 25, several physics-based solar cycle predictions were developed. These predictions use flux transport…

We present a study on the determination of rotation periods (P) of solar-like stars from the photometric irregular time-sampling of the ESA Gaia mission, currently scheduled for launch in 2013, taking into account its dependence on ecliptic…

Efforts are underway to use high-precision timing of pulsars in order to detect low-frequency gravitational waves. A limit to this technique is the timing noise generated by dispersion in the plasma along the line of sight to the pulsar,…

Rare events arising in nonlinear atmospheric dynamics remain hard to predict and attribute. We address the problem of forecasting rare events in a prototypical example, Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSWs). Approximately once every other…

Modeling and predicting solar events, particularly the solar ramping event, is critical for improving situational awareness for solar power generation systems. It has been acknowledged that weather conditions such as temperature, humidity,…

This paper is a continuation of a study by Douglass and Clader. We extend the analysis through December 2003 using the latest updates of the observational temperature and solar irradiance data sets in addition to a new volcano proxy data…

Solar wind forecasting plays a crucial role in space weather prediction, yet significant uncertainties persist due to incomplete magnetic field observations of the Sun. Isolating the solar wind forecasting errors due to these effects is…