Related papers: Improvements of the shock arrival times at the Ear…

Space weather predictions of the solar wind impacting Earth are usually first based on remote-sensing observations of the solar disc and corona, and eventually validated and/or refined with in-situ measurements taken at the Sun$-$Earth…

Space weather events may cause damage to several fields, including aviation, satellites, oil and gas industries, and electrical systems, leading to economic and commercial losses. Solar flares are one of the most significant events, and…

A Bayesian approach to solar flare prediction has been developed, which uses only the event statistics of flares already observed. The method is simple, objective, and makes few ad hoc assumptions. It is argued that this approach should be…

Solar flares are extremely energetic phenomena in our Solar System. Their impulsive, often drastic radiative increases, in particular at short wavelengths, bring immediate impacts that motivate solar physics and space weather research to…

There is a great need to accurately predict short-term precipitation, which has socioeconomic effects such as agriculture and disaster prevention. Recently, the forecasting models have employed multi-source data as the multi-modality input,…

Analyzing the effects of space weather on aviation is a new and developing topic. It has been commonly accepted that the flight time of the polar flights may increase during solar proton events because the flights have to change their route…

The aim of this paper is to provide geoscientists with the most accurate set of the Earth's astro-climatic parameters and daily insolation quantities, able to describe the Short-Term Orbital Forcing (STOF) as represented by the…

Reliable prediction of the solar cycle is a formidable challenge, yet it is increasingly vital in our technology-dependent society as solar activity drives space weather. Various methods, including precursors, nonlinear curve fitting and…

Studying solar wind conditions is central to forecasting impact of space weather on Earth. Under the assumption that the structure of this wind is constant in time and corotates with the Sun, solar wind and thereby space weather forecasts…

Context. The PLAnetary Transits and Oscillations of stars (PLATO) mission will observe the same area of the sky continuously for at least two years in an effort to detect transit signals of an Earth-like planet orbiting a solar-like star.…

Aircraft trajectory prediction requires the determination of the atmospheric properties (pressure, temperature, and density) encountered by the aircraft during its flight. This is accomplished by employing a tabulated prediction published…

The solar wind speed at Earth is one of the most important parameters regarding the effects of space weather on society. Thus far, most approaches for predicting the solar wind speed produce a single-value time series without uncertainty,…

Disturbances in space weather can negatively affect several fields, including aviation and aerospace, satellites, oil and gas industries, and electrical systems, leading to economic and commercial losses. Solar flares are the most…

Light travel time changes due to gravitational waves may be detected within the next decade through precision timing of millisecond pulsars. Removal of frequency-dependent interstellar medium (ISM) delays due to dispersion and scattering is…

The waiting time statistics of solar flares provides clues for the underlying physical mechanisms. However, flares occurring on the far-side have been missing in the statistics. In the 2024 May and June, the Solar Orbiter (SolO) spacecraft…

High-precision pulsar timing is central to a wide range of astrophysics and fundamental physics applications. When timing an ensemble of millisecond pulsars in different sky positions, known as a pulsar timing array (PTA), one can search…

We present an empirical model based on the visible area covered by coronal holes close to the central meridian in order to predict the solar wind speed at 1 AU with a lead time up to four days in advance with a 1hr time resolution. Linear…

The empirical shock arrival (ESA) model was developed based on quadrature data from Helios (in-situ) and P-78 (remote-sensing) to predict the Sun-Earth travel time of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) [Gopalswamy et al. 2005a]. The ESA model…

In this paper we focus on the problem of estimating the directions of arrival (DOA) of a set of incident plane waves. Unlike many previous works, which assume that the received observations are only affected by additive noise, we consider…

Reliable forecasts of the Earth system are crucial for human progress and safety from natural disasters. Artificial intelligence offers substantial potential to improve prediction accuracy and computational efficiency in this field, however…