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The expected signature kernel arises in statistical learning tasks as a similarity measure of probability measures on path space. Computing this kernel for known classes of stochastic processes is an important problem that, in particular,…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-09-10 Peter K. Friz , Paul P. Hager

Recently, there has been a growing interest for mixed-categorical meta-models based on Gaussian process (GP) surrogates. In this setting, several existing approaches use different strategies either by using continuous kernels (e.g.,…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-01-25 P. Saves , Y. Diouane , N. Bartoli , T. Lefebvre , J. Morlier

We introduce a new class of nonstationary kernels, which we derive as covariance functions of a novel family of stochastic processes we refer to as string Gaussian processes (string GPs). We construct string GPs to allow for multiple types…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-06-09 Yves-Laurent Kom Samo , Stephen Roberts

The partially observed linear Gaussian system of stochastic differential equations with low noise in observations is considered. A kernel-type estimators are used for estimation of the quadratic variation of the derivative of the limit of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-11-23 Yury A. Kutoyants

A number of problems in probability and statistics can be addressed using the multivariate normal (Gaussian) distribution. In the one-dimensional case, computing the probability for a given mean and variance simply requires the evaluation…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2015-04-07 Sivaram Ambikasaran , Daniel Foreman-Mackey , Leslie Greengard , David W. Hogg , Michael O'Neil

Gaussian processes (GPs) are the most common formalism for defining probability distributions over spaces of functions. While applications of GPs are myriad, a comprehensive understanding of GP sample paths, i.e. the function spaces over…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-06 Nathaël Da Costa , Marvin Pförtner , Lancelot Da Costa , Philipp Hennig

We introduce a balloon estimator in a generalized expectation-maximization method for estimating all parameters of a Gaussian mixture model given one data sample per mixture component. Instead of limiting explicitly the model size, this…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-12-12 Colas Schretter , Jianyong Sun , Peter Schelkens

We report an exact likelihood computation for Linear Gaussian Markov processes that is more scalable than existing algorithms for complex models and sparsely sampled signals. Better scaling is achieved through elimination of repeated…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-05-21 Stijn de Waele

We propose non-stationary spectral kernels for Gaussian process regression. We propose to model the spectral density of a non-stationary kernel function as a mixture of input-dependent Gaussian process frequency density surfaces. We solve…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-09-25 Sami Remes , Markus Heinonen , Samuel Kaski

Gaussian process regression is a classical kernel method for function estimation and data interpolation. In large data applications, computational costs can be reduced using low-rank or sparse approximations of the kernel. This paper…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-10-04 Daniel Sanz-Alonso , Ruiyi Yang

We introduce a novel framework for constructing scalable and flexible covariance kernels for Gaussian processes (GPs) by directly learning the covariance structure under a regression-type parameterization induced by Vecchia approximations,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-08 Jian Cao , Nian Liu , Ying Lin

Gaussian process regression is a widely-applied method for function approximation and uncertainty quantification. The technique has gained popularity recently in the machine learning community due to its robustness and interpretability. The…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-12 Marcus M. Noack , James A. Sethian

We introduce a priori Sobolev-space error estimates for the solution of nonlinear, and possibly parametric, PDEs using Gaussian process and kernel based methods. The primary assumptions are: (1) a continuous embedding of the reproducing…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-05-10 Pau Batlle , Yifan Chen , Bamdad Hosseini , Houman Owhadi , Andrew M Stuart

We study sequences of empirical measures of Euler schemes associated to some non-Markovian SDEs: SDEs driven by Gaussian processes with stationary increments. We obtain the functional convergence of this sequence to a stationary solution to…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-06-22 Serge Cohen , Fabien Panloup

Regularized least-squares (kernel-ridge / Gaussian process) regression is a fundamental algorithm of statistics and machine learning. Because generic algorithms for the exact solution have cubic complexity in the number of datapoints, large…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-15 Simon Bartels , Philipp Hennig

We present a multivariate Gaussian process regression approach for parameter field reconstruction based on the field's measurements collected at two different scales, the coarse and fine scales. The proposed approach treats the parameter…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-04-19 David A. Barajas-Solano , Alexandre M. Tartakovsky

We study $d$-variate problem in the average case setting with respect to a zero-mean Gaussian measure. The covariance kernel of this Gaussian measure is a product of univariate kernels and satisfies some special properties. We study $(s,…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2018-02-07 Jia Chen , Heping Wang , Jie Zhang

This work derives closed-form expressions computing the expectation of co-presence and of number of co-occurrences of nodes on paths sampled from a network according to general path weights (a bag of paths). The underlying idea is that two…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-08-24 Guillaume Guex , Sylvain Courtain , Marco Saerens

We study representations of positive definite kernels $K$ in a general setting, but with view to applications to harmonic analysis, to metric geometry, and to realizations of certain stochastic processes. Our initial results are stated for…

Functional Analysis · Mathematics 2017-06-30 Palle Jorgensen , Feng Tian

I propose kernel ridge regression estimators for nonparametric dose response curves and semiparametric treatment effects in the setting where an analyst has access to a selected sample rather than a random sample; only for select…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-08-24 Rahul Singh