Related papers: Fitting and projecting HIV epidemics: Data, struct…
Social contact studies, investigating social contact patterns in a population sample, have been an important contribution for epidemic models to better fit real life epidemics. A contact matrix $M$, having the \emph{mean} number of contacts…
One of the famous results of network science states that networks with heterogeneous connectivity are more susceptible to epidemic spreading than their more homogeneous counterparts. In particular, in networks of identical nodes it has been…
We study the global dynamics of a SICA infection model with general incidence rate. The proposed model is calibrated with cumulative cases of infection by HIV-AIDS in Morocco from 1986 to 2015. We first prove that our model is biologically…
Contact matrices have become a key ingredient of modern epidemic models. They account for the stratification of contacts for the age of individuals and, in some cases, the context of their interactions. However, age and context are not the…
Purpose: The use of cumulative measures of exposure to raised HIV viral load (viremia copy-years) is an increasingly common in HIV prevention and treatment epidemiology due to the high biological plausibility. We sought to estimate the…
Traditional disease transmission models assume that the infectious period is exponentially distributed with a recovery rate fixed in time and across individuals. This assumption provides analytical and computational advantages, however it…
Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) evolves with extraordinary rapidity. However, its evolution is constrained by interactions between mutations in its fitness landscape. Here we show that an Ising model describing these interactions,…
We revisit the SICA (Susceptible-Infectious-Chronic-AIDS) mathematical model for transmission dynamics of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) with varying population size in a homogeneously mixing population. We consider SICA models…
Empirical studies suggest that contact patterns follow heterogeneous inter-event times, meaning that intervals of high activity are followed by periods of inactivity. Combined with birth and death of individuals, these temporal constraints…
We develop open source infection risk calculators for patients and healthcare professionals as apps for hospital acquired infections (during child-delivery) and sexually transmitted infections (like HIV). Advanced versions of ehealth in…
Understanding the prevalence of key demographic and health indicators in small geographic areas and domains is of global interest, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where vital registration data is sparse and household…
Genetic sequence data of pathogens are increasingly used to investigate transmission dynamics in both endemic diseases and disease outbreaks; such research can aid in development of appropriate interventions and in design of studies to…
We study the relation between different social behaviors and the onset of epidemics in a model for the dynamics of sexual transmitted diseases. The model considers the society as a system of individual sexuated agents that can be organized…
The rates of escape and reversion in response to selection pressure arising from the host immune system, notably the cytotoxic T-lymphocyte (CTL) response, are key factors determining the evolution of HIV. Existing methods for estimating…
The vertebrate adaptive immune system provides a flexible and diverse set of molecules to neutralize pathogens. Yet, viruses such as HIV can cause chronic infections by evolving as quickly as the adaptive immune system, forming an…
We analytically address disease outbreaks in large, random networks with heterogeneous infectivity and susceptibility. The transmissibility $T_{uv}$ (the probability that infection of $u$ causes infection of $v$) depends on the infectivity…
The Cuban contact-tracing detection system set up in 1986 allowed the reconstruction and analysis of the sexual network underlying the epidemic (5,389 vertices and 4,073 edges, giant component of 2,386 nodes and 3,168 edges), shedding light…
Multi-parameter evidence synthesis (MPES) is receiving growing attention from the epidemiological community as a coherent and flexible analytical framework to accommodate a disparate body of evidence available to inform disease incidence…
The population dynamics underlying the diffusion of ideas hold many qualitative similarities to those involved in the spread of infections. In spite of much suggestive evidence this analogy is hardly ever quantified in useful ways. The…
Human mobility, contact patterns, and their interplay are key aspects of our social behavior that shape the spread of infectious diseases across different regions. In the light of new evidence and data sets about these two elements,…