Related papers: Fitting and projecting HIV epidemics: Data, struct…
Identifying a patient's key problems over time is a common task for providers at the point care, yet a complex and time-consuming activity given current electric health records. To enable a problem-oriented summarizer to identify a…
Understanding and predicting outbreaks of contagious diseases are crucial to the development of society and public health, especially for underdeveloped countries. However, challenging problems are encountered because of complex epidemic…
Network models are increasingly used to study infectious disease spread. Exponential Random Graph models have a history in this area, with scalable inference methods now available. An alternative approach uses mechanistic network models.…
Network epidemiology often assumes that the relationships defining the social network of a population are static. The dynamics of relationships is only taken indirectly into account, by assuming that the relevant information to study…
Introduction. It is well known that social contact patterns differ from country to country. This variation coincides with significant socioeconomic heterogeneity that complicates the design of effective non-pharmaceutical interventions.…
Understanding the spread of any disease is a highly complex and interdisciplinary exercise as biological, social, geographic, economic, and medical factors may shape the way a disease moves through a population and options for its eventual…
The fundamental models of epidemiology describe the progression of an infectious disease through a population using compartmentalized differential equations, but do not incorporate population-level heterogeneity in infection susceptibility.…
A two-sex Basic Reproduction Number (BRN) is used to investigate the conditions under which the Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) may spread through heterosexual contacts in Sub-Saharan Africa. (The BRN is the expected number of new…
The success of an infectious disease to invade a population is strongly controlled by the population's specific connectivity structure. Here a network model is presented as an aid in understanding the role of social behavior and…
During primary HIV infection, the kinetics of plasma virus concentrations and CD4+ cell counts is very complex. Parametric and nonparametric models have been suggested for fitting repeated measurements of these markers. Alternatively,…
Recent clinical studies have shown that HIV disease pathogenesis can depend strongly on many factors at the time of transmission, including the strength of the initial viral load and the local availability of CD4+ T-cells. In this article,…
The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…
When an epidemic spreads in a population, individuals may adaptively change the structure of their social contact network to reduce risk of infection. Here we study the spread of an epidemic on an adaptive network with community structure.…
Sexual partnerships that overlap in time (concurrent relationships) may play a significant role in the HIV epidemic, but the precise effect is unclear. We derive edge-based compartmental models of disease spread in idealized dynamic…
Background. Several studies have used phylogenetics to investigate Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) transmission among Men who have Sex with Men (MSMs) in Montreal, Quebec, Canada, revealing many transmission clusters. The Quebec HIV…
We have developed a mathematical model for in-host virus dynamics that includes spatial chemotaxis and diffusion across a two dimensional surface representing the vaginal or rectal epithelium at primary HIV infection. A linear stability…
Black men who have sex with men (MSM) in the U.S. are more likely to be HIV-positive than White MSM. Intentional and unintentional segregation of Black from non-Black MSM in sex partner meeting places may perpetuate this disparity, a fact…
A better characterization of the early growth dynamics of an epidemic is needed to dissect the important drivers of disease transmission. We introduce a 2-parameter generalized-growth model to characterize the ascending phase of an outbreak…
We study Eigen's model of quasi-species, characterized by sequences that replicate with a specified fitness and mutate independently at single sites. The evolution of the population vector in time is then closely related to that of quantum…
In this paper we generalise a simple discrete time stochastic SIR type model defined by Tuckwell and Williams. The SIR model by Tuckwell and Williams assumes a homogeneous population, a fixed infectious period, and a strict transition from…