Related papers: Fitting and projecting HIV epidemics: Data, struct…
Households play a crucial role in the propagation of infectious diseases due to the frequent and prolonged interactions that typically occur between their members. Recent studies have emphasized the need to include socioeconomic variables…
Due to the widespread availability of effective antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens, average lifespans of persons with HIV (PWH) in the United States have increased significantly in recent decades. In turn, the demographic profile of PWH…
Metapopulation models are commonly used in ecology, evolution, and epidemiology. These models usually entail homogeneity assumptions within patches and study networks of migration between patches to generate insights into conservation of…
Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is an effective intervention for preventing HIV transmission, but high cost and uneven uptake raise challenges for resource allocation. While spillover effects, wherein PrEP use in one group reduces…
Recent years have seen a large amount of interest in epidemics on networks as a way of representing the complex structure of contacts capable of spreading infections through the modern human population. The configuration model is a popular…
In this work we introduce a differential equation model with time-delay that describes the three-stage dynamics and the two time scales observed in HIV infection. Assuming that the virus has high mutation and rapid reproduction rates that…
We propose a new mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Global stability of the unique endemic equilibrium is proved. Then, based on data provided by the "Progress Report on the AIDS…
Perinatal epidemiology often aims to evaluate exposures on infant outcomes. When the exposure affects the composition of people who give birth to live infants (e.g., by affecting fertility, behavior, or birth outcomes), this "live birth…
Infectious disease modeling is used to forecast epidemics and assess the effectiveness of intervention strategies. Although the core assumption of mass-action models of homogeneously mixed population is often implausible, they are…
Human mobility is a key component of large-scale spatial-transmission models of infectious diseases. Correctly modeling and quantifying human mobility is critical for improving epidemic control policies, but may be hindered by incomplete…
Epidemiological models describe the spread of an infectious disease within a population. They capture microscopic details on how the disease is passed on among individuals in various different ways, while making predictions about the state…
It is widely known that the spread of the HIV virus was slower than exponential in several populations, even at the very beginning of the epidemic. We show that this implies a significant reduction in the effective reproductive rate of the…
Compartmental epidemic models have been widely used for predicting the course of epidemics, from estimating the basic reproduction number to guiding intervention policies. Studies commonly acknowledge these models' assumptions but less…
The proportional hazards model represents the most commonly assumed hazard structure when analysing time to event data using regression models. We study a general hazard structure which contains, as particular cases, proportional hazards,…
Missing data is a recurrent issue in epidemiology where the infection process may be partially observed. Approximate Bayesian Computation, an alternative to data imputation methods such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo integration, is proposed…
Infectious disease is a leading threat to public health, economic stability, and other key social structures. Efforts to mitigate these impacts depend on accurate and timely monitoring to measure the risk and progress of disease.…
In dynamic models of infectious disease transmission, typically various mixing patterns are imposed on the so-called Who-Acquires-Infection-From-Whom matrix (WAIFW). These imposed mixing patterns are based on prior knowledge of age-related…
Online dating and hookup platforms have fundamentally changed people's day-to-day practices of sex and love-but exist in tension with older social and medicolegal norms. This is particularly the case for people with HIV, who are frequently…
Up to now, the effects of having heterogeneous networks of contacts have been studied mostly for diseases which are not persistent in time, i.e., for diseases where the infectious period can be considered very small compared to the lifetime…
Estimating HIV-1 incidence using biomarker assays in cross-sectional surveys is important for understanding the HIV pandemic. However, the utility of these estimates has been limited by uncertainty about what input parameters to use for…