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Sudbury (1985) showed for the Maki-Thompson model of rumour spreading that the proportion of the population never hearing the rumour converges in probability to a limiting constant (approximately equal to 0.203) as the population size tends…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-09-07 Yuchen Duan , Ayalvadi Ganesh , University of Bristol

The final proportion of ignorants in the classical Maki--Thompson rumour model is known to satisfy the law of large numbers, the central limit theorem, and the large deviation principle. In this note, we establish the corresponding moderate…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-12 Shaochen Wang , Guangyu Yang

We propose a rumor propagation model in which individuals within a homogeneously mixed population can assume one of infinitely many possible states. To analyze this model, we extend the classical law of large numbers for density-dependent…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-08-12 Cristian F. Coletti , Denis A. Luiz , Alejandra Rada

We propose a realistic generalization of the Maki-Thompson rumour model by assuming that each spreader ceases to propagate the rumour right after being involved in a random number of stifling experiences. We consider the process with a…

Probability · Mathematics 2010-11-12 Elcio Lebensztayn , Fábio P. Machado , Pablo M. Rodríguez

We propose a mathematical model to measure how multiple repetitions may influence in the ultimate proportion of the population never hearing a rumor during a given outbreak. The model is a multi-dimensional continuous-time Markov chain that…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-05-11 Alejandra Rada , Cristian F. Coletti , Elcio Lebensztayn , Pablo M. Rodriguez

We study a general stochastic rumour model in which an ignorant individual has a certain probability of becoming a stifler immediately upon hearing the rumour. We refer to this special kind of stifler as an uninterested individual. Our…

Probability · Mathematics 2011-05-24 Elcio Lebensztayn , Fábio P. Machado , Pablo M. Rodríguez

We consider the Maki-Thompson model for the stochastic propagation of a rumour within a population. We extend the original hypothesis of homogenously mixed population by allowing for a small-world network embedding the model. This structure…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-22 Elena Agliari , Angelica Pachon , Pablo M. Rodriguez , Flavia Tavani

We examine a general stochastic rumor model characterized by specific parameters that govern the interaction rates among individuals. Our model includes the \((\alpha, p)\)-probability variants of the well-known Daley--Kendall and…

Physics and Society · Physics 2025-07-11 Elcio Lebensztayn , Pablo M. Rodriguez

The Maki-Thompson rumor model is defined by assuming that a population represented by a graph is subdivided into three classes of individuals; namely, ignorants, spreaders and stiflers. A spreader tells the rumor to any of its nearest…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-01-05 Valdivino V. Junior , Pablo M. Rodriguez , Adalto Speroto

We investigate rumor spreading in a generalized Maki-Thompson model with spontaneous stifling, evolving on quasi-transitive networks. Individuals are either ignorants, spreaders, or stiflers; spreaders stop by contact with other spreaders…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-25 Nancy Lopes Garcia , Denis Araujo Luiz , Daniel Miranda Machado

This paper examines the quasi-stationary behavior of stochastic rumor processes. Using the results by van Doorn and Pollett (2008), we first prove that the continuous-time Maki--Thompson model has a unique quasi-stationary distribution…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-01 Iddo Ben-Ari , Elcio Lebensztayn , Lucas Sousa Santos

In this work we propose a new extension for the Maki-Thompson rumor model which incorporates inter-group directed contacts. The model is defined on an homogeneously mixing population where the existence of two differentiated groups of…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-04 Carolina Grejo , Pablo M. Rodriguez

In this paper we study the Maki-Thompson rumor model on infinite Cayley trees. The basic version of the model is defined by assuming that a population represented by a graph is subdivided into three classes of individuals: ignorants,…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-12-02 Valdivino V. Junior , Pablo M. Rodriguez , Adalto Speroto

The theory of stochastic approximations form the theoretical foundation for studying convergence properties of many popular recursive learning algorithms in statistics, machine learning and statistical physics. Large deviations for…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-02-05 Henrik Hult , Adam Lindhe , Pierre Nyquist , Guo-Jhen Wu

Rumor and information spreading are natural processes that emerge from human-to-human interaction. Mathematically, this was explored in the popular Maki-Thompson model, where a phase transition was thought to be absent. Here, we show that a…

We study a stochastic model for the diffusion of competing opinions in a population composed of three types of agents: trend-followers, opposers, and indifferent individuals. The decision dynamics are driven by reinforcement mechanisms,…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-06-24 Manuel González-Navarrete

We study four discrete time stochastic systems on $\bbN$ modeling processes of rumour spreading. The involved individuals can either have an active or a passive role, speaking up or asking for the rumour. The appetite in spreading or…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-03-05 Valdivino V. Junior , Fabio P. Machado , Mauricio Zuluaga

We study a model for opinion formation which incorporates three basic ingredients for the evolution of the opinion held by an individual: imitation, influence of fashion and randomness. We show that in the absence of fashion, the model…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-10 Claudio J. Tessone , Raul Toral

We define a stochastic reaction-diffusion process that describes a consensus formation in a non-sedentary population. The process is a diffusive version of the Majority Vote model, where the state update follows two stages: in the first…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2022-03-14 J. R. S. Lima , F. W. S. Lima , T. F. A. Alves , G. A. Alves , A. Macedo-Filho

Junior, Machado and Zuluaga (2011) studied a model to understand the spread of a rumour. Their model consists of individuals situated at the integer points of the line $\N$. An individual at the origin $0$ starts a rumour and passes it to…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-05 Farkhondeh Alsadat Sajadi , Rahul Roy
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