English

The Maki-Thompson model with random awareness

Probability 2025-08-12 v1

Abstract

We propose a rumor propagation model in which individuals within a homogeneously mixed population can assume one of infinitely many possible states. To analyze this model, we extend the classical law of large numbers for density-dependent population models in Rd\mathbb{R}^d (Ethier \& Kurtz in 2005) to an infinite--dimensional setting. Specifically, we prove a convergence result for stochastic processes in the space of pp-summable real sequences, generalizing the finite-dimensional theory. We apply this framework to an infinite-dimensional continuous-time Markov chain that can be seen as a generalization of the Maki--Thompson model, where each ignorant individual becomes a spreader only after hearing the rumor a random number of times. We derive the asymptotic proportions of individuals in each state at the end of a rumor outbreak. Furthermore, we characterize the maximum proportion of individuals actively spreading the rumor and explore conditions under which the model exhibits waves of rumor propagation.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2508.07099,
  title  = {The Maki-Thompson model with random awareness},
  author = {Cristian F. Coletti and Denis A. Luiz and Alejandra Rada},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2508.07099},
  year   = {2025}
}

Comments

25 pages, 16 figures

R2 v1 2026-07-01T04:42:41.377Z