Related papers: Inferring unobserved multistrain epidemic sub-popu…
Standard epidemic models based on compartmental differential equations are investigated under continuous parameter change as external forcing. We show that seasonal modulation of the contact parameter superimposed a monotonic decay needs a…
Epidemics are emergent phenomena depending on the epidemiological characteristics of pathogens and the interaction and movement of people. Public transit systems have provided much important information about the movement of people, but…
The estimation from available data of parameters governing epidemics is a major challenge. In addition to usual issues (data often incomplete and noisy), epidemics of the same nature may be observed in several places or over different…
When surveillance data of infectious disease incidence (e.g. weekly case counts) are disaggregated by demographic indicators, disparities in long-run health outcomes between these groups become apparent. Accurate identification of high-risk…
We propose an SEIR model for the populations and an SEI model for the vector to describe the transmission dynamics of a four-strain model with both primary and secondary dengue infections. In order to accomplish this, we propose and obtain…
One of the most salient spatio-temporal patterns in population ecology is the synchronization of fluctuating local populations across vast spatial extent. Synchronization of abundance has been widely observed across a range of spatial…
Common respiratory viruses cause seasonal epidemics in sequential patterns. The underlying mechanisms for this pattern have been debated for some time. For influenza, contenders include temperature, humidity, and vitamin D levels. While…
Infectious disease dynamics operate across multiple biological scales, with within-host viral dynamics being a key driver of between-host transmission. However, while models that explicitly link these scales exist, none have been developed…
We study a model for two lasers that are mutually coupled opto-electronically by modulating the pump of one laser with the intensity deviations from the steady-state output of the other. Such a model is analogous to the equations describing…
In this paper we introduce a novel method to conduct inference with models defined through a continuous-time Markov process, and we apply these results to a classical stochastic SIR model as a case study. Using the inverse-size expansion of…
Modeling epidemic dynamics plays an important role in studying how diseases spread, predicting their future course, and designing strategies to control them. In this letter, we introduce a model of SIR (susceptible-infected-removed) type…
Infection by distinct Dengue virus serotypes and host immunity are intricately linked. In particular, certain levels of cross-reactive antibodies in the host may actually enhance infection severity leading to Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF).…
To forecast the time dynamics of an epidemic, we propose a discrete stochastic model that unifies and generalizes previous approaches to the subject. Viewing a given population of individuals or groups of individuals with given health state…
A common assumption in causal inference from observational data is that there is no hidden confounding. Yet it is, in general, impossible to verify this assumption from a single dataset. Under the assumption of independent causal mechanisms…
The transmission dynamics of an epidemic are rarely homogeneous. Super-spreading events and super-spreading individuals are two types of heterogeneous transmissibility. Inference of super-spreading is commonly carried out on secondary case…
Unsupervised crowd counting is a challenging yet not largely explored task. In this paper, we explore it in a transfer learning setting where we learn to detect and count persons in an unlabeled target set by transferring bi-knowledge…
Predicting the human burden of vector-borne diseases from limited surveillance data remains a major challenge, particularly in the presence of nonlinear transmission dynamics and delayed effects arising from vector ecology and human…
We analyse an epidemiological model of competing strains of pathogens and hence differences in transmission for first versus secondary infection due to interaction of the strains with previously aquired immunities, as has been described for…
A prompt public health response to a new epidemic relies on the ability to monitor and predict its evolution in real time as data accumulate. The 2009 A/H1N1 outbreak in the UK revealed pandemic data as noisy, contaminated, potentially…
This paper considers an unsignalized intersection used by two traffic streams. A stream of cars is using a primary road, and has priority over the other, low-priority, stream. Cars belonging to the latter stream cross the primary road if…