English

Detecting hidden confounding in observational data using multiple environments

Methodology 2023-11-07 v4 Machine Learning Machine Learning

Abstract

A common assumption in causal inference from observational data is that there is no hidden confounding. Yet it is, in general, impossible to verify this assumption from a single dataset. Under the assumption of independent causal mechanisms underlying the data-generating process, we demonstrate a way to detect unobserved confounders when having multiple observational datasets coming from different environments. We present a theory for testable conditional independencies that are only absent when there is hidden confounding and examine cases where we violate its assumptions: degenerate & dependent mechanisms, and faithfulness violations. Additionally, we propose a procedure to test these independencies and study its empirical finite-sample behavior using simulation studies and semi-synthetic data based on a real-world dataset. In most cases, the proposed procedure correctly predicts the presence of hidden confounding, particularly when the confounding bias is large.

Keywords

Cite

@article{arxiv.2205.13935,
  title  = {Detecting hidden confounding in observational data using multiple environments},
  author = {Rickard K. A. Karlsson and Jesse H. Krijthe},
  journal= {arXiv preprint arXiv:2205.13935},
  year   = {2023}
}

Comments

NeurIPS 2023 camera-ready version; 30 pages including references and appendix

R2 v1 2026-06-24T11:30:51.752Z