Related papers: Inferring unobserved multistrain epidemic sub-popu…
Dengue, a mosquito-borne disease, continues to pose a persistent public health challenge in urban areas, particularly in tropical regions such as Singapore. Effective and affordable control requires anticipating where transmission risks are…
Causal understanding is a fundamental goal of evidence-based medicine. When randomization is impossible, causal inference methods allow the estimation of treatment effects from retrospective analysis of observational data. However, such…
The early detection of infectious disease outbreaks is a crucial task to protect population health. To this end, public health surveillance systems have been established to systematically collect and analyse infectious disease data. A…
We use a stochastic Markovian dynamics approach to describe the spreading of vector-transmitted diseases, like dengue, and the threshold of the disease. The coexistence space is composed by two structures representing the human and mosquito…
The spread of infectious disease is strongly influenced by social dynamics. In addition to infection risk, individuals vaccination decisions depend on prevailing social behavior: high infection levels and widespread vaccination can increase…
Unobserved confounding is a fundamental challenge for estimating causal effects. To address unobserved confounding, recent literature has turned to two different approaches -- proxy variables and the use of multiple treatments. The first…
Individual-level epidemic models are increasingly being used to help understand the transmission dynamics of various infectious diseases. However, fitting such models to individual-level epidemic data is challenging, as we often only know…
In the Staged Progression (SP) epidemic models, infected individuals are classified into a suitable number of states. The goal of these models is to describe as closely as possible the effect of differences in infectiousness exhibited by…
In real world, there is a significant relation between human behaviors and epidemic spread. Especially, the reactions among individuals in different communities to epidemics may be different, which lead to cluster synchronization of human…
As offered by the World Health Organisation (WHO), close to half of the population in the world's resides in dengue-risk zones. Dengue viruses are transmitted to individuals by Aedes mosquito species infected bite (Ae. Albopictus of Ae.…
Network--based epidemic models that account for heterogeneous contact patterns are extensively used to predict and control the diffusion of infectious diseases. We use census and survey data to reconstruct a geo--referenced and…
This paper analyses the dynamics of infectious disease with a concurrent spread of disease awareness. The model includes local awareness due to contacts with aware individuals, as well as global awareness due to reported cases of infection…
The susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model is analyzed through a degree-based mean-field approach. In this work, a mitigation factor is introduced in the probability of finding an infected individual following an edge. This…
Using a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) meta-population model of disease transmission, we present analytical calculations and numerical simulations dissecting the interplay between stochasticity and the division of a…
First Few X (FFX) studies collect household-stratified data in the early stages of a pandemic, in order to infer severity and transmissibility of an emerging disease. We present a Bayesian method to approximately infer population-level…
Tracking multiple time-varying states based on heterogeneous observations is a key problem in many applications. Here, we develop a statistical model and algorithm for tracking an unknown number of targets based on the probabilistic fusion…
Epidemic models are invaluable tools to understand and implement strategies to control the spread of infectious diseases, as well as to inform public health policies and resource allocation. However, current modeling approaches have…
To generate coherent responses, language models infer unobserved meaning from their input text sequence. One potential explanation for this capability arises from theories of delay embeddings in dynamical systems, which prove that…
Understanding age-group dynamics of infectious diseases is a fundamental issue for both scientific study and policymaking. Age-structure epidemic models were developed in order to study and improve our understanding of these dynamics. By…
An epidemic multi-strain model with temporary cross-immunity shows chaos, even in a previously unexpected parameter region. Especially dengue fever models with strong enhanced infectivity on secondary infection have previously shown…