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Recent advances in extreme value theory have established $\ell$-Pareto processes as the natural limits for extreme events defined in terms of exceedances of a risk functional. Here we provide methods for the practical modelling of data…

Methodology · Statistics 2015-12-21 Emeric Thibaud , Thomas Opitz

We consider point process convergence for sequences of iid random walks. The objective is to derive asymptotic theory for the largest extremes of these random walks. We show convergence of the maximum random walk to the Gumbel or the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-10 Thomas Mikosch , Jorge Yslas

We give conditions to prove the existence of an Extremal Index for general stationary stochastic processes by detecting the presence of one or more underlying periodic phenomena. This theory, besides giving general useful tools to identify…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-01-20 Ana Cristina Moreira Freitas , Jorge Milhazes Freitas , Mike Todd

We study the asymptotic behaviour of a properly normalized time changed Wiener processes. The time change reflects the fact that we consider the Laplace operator (which generates a Wiener process) multiplied by a possibly degenerate…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-05-11 Yuri Kondratiev , Yuliya Mishura , René L. Schilling

In this paper we present some new limit theorems for power variation of $k$th order increments of stationary increments L\'evy driven moving averages. In this infill sampling setting, the asymptotic theory gives very surprising results,…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-23 Andreas Basse-O'Connor , Raphaël Lachièze-Rey , Mark Podolskij

We study the joint limit behavior of sums, maxima and $\ell^p$-type moduli for samples taken from an $\mathbb{R}^d$-valued regularly varying stationary sequence with infinite variance. As a consequence, we can determine the distributional…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-03-31 Muneya Matsui , Thomas Mikosch , Olivier Wintenberger

In the classical stochastic resetting problem, a particle, moving according to some stochastic dynamics, undergoes random interruptions that bring it to a selected domain, and then, the process recommences. Hitherto, the resetting mechanism…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-12-08 Carlos A. Plata , Deepak Gupta , Sandro Azaele

Given an observation of the uniform empirical process $\alp_n$, its functional increments $\alp_n(u+a_n\cdot)-\alp_n(u)$ can be viewed as a single random process, when $u$ is distributed under the Lebesgue measure. We investigate the almost…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2012-01-27 Davit Varron

Motivated by entropic optimal transport, time reversal of Markov jump processes in $\mathbb{R}^n$ is investigated. Relying on an abstract integration by parts formula for the carr\'e du champ of a Markov process recently obtained by…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-09-05 Giovanni Conforti , Christian Léonard

We construct and describe the extremal process for variable speed branching Brownian motion, studied recently by Fang and Zeitouni, for the case of piecewise constant speeds; in fact for simplicity we concentrate on the case when the speed…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-12-19 Anton Bovier , Lisa Hartung

A variety of methods have been proposed for inference about extreme dependence for multivariate or spatially-indexed stochastic processes and time series. Most of these proceed by first transforming data to some specific extreme value…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-05-22 James E. Johndrow , Robert L. Wolpert

The block maxima method is a classical and widely applied statistical method for time series extremes. It has recently been found that respective estimators whose asymptotics are driven by empirical means can be improved by using sliding…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-08-29 Axel Bücher , Torben Staud

It is argued that systems whose elements are renewed according to an extremal criterion can generally be expected to exhibit long-term memory. This is verified for the minimal extremally driven model, which is first defined and then solved…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-10-31 D. A. Head

The limiting extremal processes of the branching Brownian motion (BBM), the two-speed BBM, and the branching random walk are known to be randomly shifted decorated Poisson point processes (SDPPP). In the proofs of those results, the Laplace…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-19 Eliran Subag , Ofer Zeitouni

For time series with high temporal correlation, the empirical process converges rather slowly to its limiting distribution. Many statistics in change-point analysis, goodness-of-fit testing and uncertainty quantification admit a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-05-26 Annika Betken , Marie-Christine Düker

In this paper we characterize the limiting behavior of sums of extreme values of long range dependent sequences defined as functionals of linear processes with finite variance. The extremal sums behave completely different by compared to…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Rafal Kulik

The block maxima method in extreme-value analysis proceeds by fitting an extreme-value distribution to a sample of block maxima extracted from an observed stretch of a time series. The method is usually validated under two simplifying…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-09-19 Axel Bücher , Johan Segers

We investigate long and short memory in $\alpha$-stable moving averages and max-stable processes with $\alpha$-Fr\'echet marginal distributions. As these processes are heavy-tailed, we rely on the notion of long range dependence suggested…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-01 Vitalii Makogin , Marco Oesting , Albert Rapp , Evgeny Spodarev

We study the statistics of first passage times (FPTs) of trajectory observables in both classical and quantum Markov processes. We consider specifically the FPTs of counting observables, that is, the times to reach a certain threshold of a…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-05-17 George Bakewell-Smith , Federico Girotti , Mădălin Guţă , Juan P. Garrahan

We extend results on time-rescaled occupation time fluctuation limits of the $(d,\alpha, \beta)$-branching particle system $(0<\alpha \leq 2, 0<\beta \leq 1)$ with Poisson initial condition. The earlier results in the homogeneous case…

Probability · Mathematics 2012-03-14 Tomasz Bojdecki , Luis G. Gorostiza , Anna Talarczyk