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We study nonstationary intermittent dynamical systems, such as compositions of a (deterministic) sequence of Pomeau-Manneville maps. We prove two main results: sharp bounds on memory loss, including the "unexpected" faster rate for a large…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2021-04-21 Alexey Korepanov , Juho Leppänen

Finding the most powerful node in a dynamic random network, the largest set in a partition-valued stochastic process, or the largest family in an evolving population at a given time, can be a very difficult problem. This is particularly the…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-09-09 Cécile Mailler , Peter Mörters , Anna Senkevich

We study the asymptotic behaviour of different statistics for time series exhibiting long memory and nonstationarity. For processes with memory parameter $d\in(-1/2,3/2)$, we derive the joint limiting distribution of discrete Fourier…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-05-28 Mohamedou Ould Haye , Anne Philippe

The state of a stochastic process evolving over a time $t$ is typically assumed to lie on a normal distribution whose width scales like $t^{1/2}$. However, processes where the probability distribution is not normal and the scaling exponent…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2017-05-24 Lijian Chen , Kevin E. Bassler , Joseph L. McCauley , Gemunu H. Gunaratne

We study the invariant measures and fluctuation limits of discrete-time harness processes in one spatial dimension. We construct one essential ergodic (under spatial shifts) invariant measure of the increment process derived from harness…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-10 Yun Zhai

In this paper we consider the distribution of the location of the path supremum in a fixed interval for self-similar processes with stationary increments. To this end, a point process is constructed and its relation to the distribution of…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-05-24 Yi Shen

Time estimation is a fundamental task that underpins precision measurement, global navigation systems, financial markets, and the organisation of everyday life. Many biological processes also depend on time estimation by nanoscale clocks,…

This article examines large time behaviour of finite state mean-field interacting particle systems. Our first main result is a sharp estimate (in the exponential scale) on the time required for convergence of the empirical measure process…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-03-02 Sarath Yasodharan , Rajesh Sundaresan

We study a stochastic model based on a modified fragmentation of a finite interval. The mechanism consists in cutting the interval at a random location and substituting a unique fragment on the right of the cut to regenerate and preserve…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-04-25 Jean-Yves Fortin

We study the extremes for a class of a symmetric stable random fields with long range dependence. We prove functional extremal theorems both in the space of sup measures and in the space of cadlag functions of several variables. The limits…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-17 Zaoli Chen , Gennady Samorodnitsky

We study extremal statistics and return intervals in stationary long-range correlated sequences for which the underlying probability density function is bounded and uniform. The extremal statistics we consider e.g., maximum relative to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-05-13 N. R. Moloney , J. Davidsen

Recently, the notion of implicit extreme value distributions has been established, which is based on a given loss function $f \ge 0$. From an application point of view, one is rather interested in extreme loss events that occur relative to…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-08-20 Dustin Kremer

Fr\'echet mean and variance provide a way of obtaining mean and variance for general metric space valued random variables and can be used for statistical analysis of data objects that lie in abstract spaces devoid of algebraic structure and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-10-22 Paromita Dubey , Hans-Georg Müller

We propose a new sequential monitoring scheme for changes in the parameters of a multivariate time series. In contrast to procedures proposed in the literature which compare an estimator from the training sample with an estimator calculated…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-07-28 Josua Gösmann , Tobias Kley , Holger Dette

We study the behavior of independent and stationary increments jump processes as they approach fixed thresholds. The exact crossing time is unavailable because the real-time information about successive jumps is unknown. Instead, the…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-01-23 Jewgeni H. Dshalalow , Ryan T. White

A tempered Hermite process modifies the power law kernel in the time domain representation of a Hermite process by multiplying an exponential tempering factor $\lambda>0$ such that the process is well defined for Hurst parameter…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-01-07 Farzad Sabzikar

While there exists a well-developed asymptotic theory of Fr\'echet means of random variables taking values in a general "finite-dimensional" metric space, there are only a few known results in which the random variables can take values in…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-12-30 Adam Quinn Jaffe

We consider the number ${\cal N}_{\theta_A}(\theta)$ of eigenvalues $e^{i \theta_j}$ of a random unitary matrix, drawn from CUE$_{\beta}(N)$, in the interval $\theta_j \in [\theta_A,\theta]$. The deviations from its mean, ${\cal…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2020-06-24 Yan V. Fyodorov , Pierre Le Doussal

In this paper we present some new limit theorems for power variation of $k$th order increments of stationary increments L\'evy driven moving averages. In the infill asymptotic setting, where the sampling frequency converges to zero while…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-03-25 Andreas Basse-O'Connor , Raphaël Lachièze-Rey , Mark Podolskij

We consider an independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random dynamical system of simple linear transformations on the unit interval $T_{\beta}(x)=\beta x$ (mod $1$), $x\in[0,1]$, $\beta>0$, which are the so-called…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2024-04-26 Shintaro Suzuki