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We prove a concentration inequality for sequential dynamical systems of the unit interval enjoying an exponential loss of memory in the BV norm, and we investigate several of its consequences. In particular, this covers compositions of…
In this paper we present the asymptotic analysis of the realised quadratic variation for multivariate symmetric $\beta$-stable L\'evy processes, $\beta \in (0,2)$, and certain pure jump semimartingales. The main focus is on derivation of…
We consider a system of diffusing particles on the real line in a quadratic external potential and with repulsive electrostatic interaction. The empirical measure process is known to converge weakly to a deterministic measure-valued process…
We consider the extreme value theory of a hyperbolic toral automorphism $T: \mathbb{T}^2 \to \mathbb{T}^2$ showing that if a H\"older observation $\phi$ which is a function of a Euclidean-type distance to a non-periodic point $\zeta$ is…
We establish self-norming central limit theorems for non-stationary time series arising as observations on sequential maps possessing an indifferent fixed point. These transformations are obtained by perturbing the slope in the…
We prove, for any $\beta >0$, a central limit theorem for the fluctuations of linear statistics in the Sine-$\beta$ process, which is the infinite volume limit of the random microscopic behavior in the bulk of one-dimensional log-gases at…
Small nonequelibrium systems driven by an external periodic protocol can be described by Markov processes with time-periodic transition rates. In general, current fluctuations in such small systems are large and may play a crucial role. We…
For a small system like a colloidal particle or a single biomolecule embedded in a heat bath, the optimal protocol of an external control parameter minimizes the mean work required to drive the system from one given equilibrium state to…
Consider a first-order autoregressive process $X_i=\beta X_{i-1}+\varepsilon_i,$ where $\varepsilon_i=G(\eta_i,\eta_{i-1},\ldots)$ and $\eta_i,i\in\mathbb{Z}$ are i.i.d. random variables. Motivated by two important issues for the inference…
A function $f=f_T$ is called least energy approximation to a function $B$ on the interval $[0,T]$ with penalty $Q$ if it solves the variational problem $$ \int_0^T \left[ f'(t)^2 + Q(f(t)-B(t)) \right] dt \searrow \min. $$ For quadratic…
We consider the problem of efficient inference of the Average Treatment Effect in a sequential experiment where the policy governing the assignment of subjects to treatment or control can change over time. We first provide a central limit…
We study the extremal behavior of a stochastic integral driven by a multivariate L\'{e}vy process that is regularly varying with index $\alpha>0$. For predictable integrands with a finite $(\alpha+\delta)$-moment, for some $\delta>0$, we…
What happens when a continuously evolving stochastic process is interrupted with large changes at random intervals $\tau$ distributed as a power-law $\sim \tau^{-(1+\alpha)};\alpha>0$? Modeling the stochastic process by diffusion and the…
We investigate the asymptotic properties of the integrated periodogram calculated from a sequence of indicator functions of dependent extremal events. An event in Euclidean space is extreme if it occurs far away from the origin. We use a…
The conventional definition of extremality of a finite collection of sets is extended by replacing a fixed point (extremal point) in the intersection of the sets by a collection of sequences of points in the individual sets with the…
The large-deviation method allows to characterize an ergodic counting process in terms of a thermodynamic frame where a free energy function determines the asymptotic non-stationary statistical properties of its fluctuations. Here, we study…
While averages and typical fluctuations often play a major role to understand the behavior of a non-equilibrium system, this nonetheless is not always true. Rare events and large fluctuations are also pivotal when a thorough analysis of the…
The first passage time process of a L\'evy subordinator with heavy-tailed L\'evy measure has long-range dependent paths. The random fluctuations that appear under two natural schemes of summation and time scaling of such stochastic…
A discrete-time random process is described which can generate bursty sequences of events. A Bernoulli process, where the probability of an event occurring at time $t$ is given by a fixed probability $x$, is modified to include a memory…
The fractal scaling properties of the heartbeat time series are studied in a controlled ergometric regime using the Hurst rescaled range R/S analysis. The long-time "memory effect" quantified by the value of the Hurst exponent $H>0.5$ is…