Related papers: A random shock model with mixed effect, including …
The discrete time risk model with two seasons and dependent claims is considered. An algorithm is created for computing the values of the ultimate ruin probability. Theoretical results are illustrated with numerical examples.
We examine what happens in a population when it experiences an abrupt change in surrounding conditions. Several cases of such "abrupt transitions" for both physical and living social systems are analyzed from which it can be seen that all…
We propose two structural models for stochastic losses given default which allow to model the credit losses of a portfolio of defaultable financial instruments. The credit losses are integrated into a structural model of default events…
Stochastic comparisons of series and parallel systems are important in many areas of engineering, operations research and reliability analysis. These comparisons allow for the evaluation of the performance and reliability of systems under…
External or internal shocks may lead to the collapse of a system consisting of many agents. If the shock hits only one agent initially and causes it to fail, this can induce a cascade of failures among neighoring agents. Several critical…
Stochastic feedback systems give rise to a variety of notions of stability. The conditions for the stability of the median, mean, and variance stability conditions differ. These conditions can be stated explicitly for scalar discrete-time…
In the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, empirical data have revealed that large-scale health crises not only cause immediate disruptions in mortality dynamics but also have persistent effects that may last for several years. Existing…
Since several years, the fragility of global supply chains (GSCs) is at historically high levels. In the same time, the landscape of hybrid threats is expanding; new forms of hybrid threats create different types of uncertainties. This…
Most theoretical analysis for lifetime distribution explains origins of specific distribution based on independent failure. We develop a unified framework encompassing different lifetime distribution for failure-coupled network systems. We…
Several aspects influence corrosive processes in RC structures, such as environmental conditions, structural geometry, and mechanical properties. Since these aspects present large randomnesses, probabilistic models allow a more accurate…
The mortality rate of many complex multicellular organisms increase with age, which suggests that net aging damage is accumulative, despite remodeling processes. But how exactly do little mishaps in the cellular level accumulate and spread…
We study cascading failures in a system comprising interdependent networks/systems, in which nodes rely on other nodes both in the same system and in other systems to perform their function. The (inter-)dependence among nodes is modeled…
In reliability-based design, the estimation of the failure probability is a crucial objective. However, focusing only on the occurrence of the failure event may be insufficient to entirely characterize the reliability of the considered…
We consider a simple system with a local synchronous generator and a load whose power consumption is a random process. The most probable scenario of system failure (synchronization loss) is considered, and it is argued that its knowledge is…
Resilience has emerged as a crucial concept for evaluating structural performance under disasters because of its ability to extend beyond traditional risk assessments, accounting for a system's ability to minimize disruptions and maintain…
We study cascading failures in networks using a dynamical flow model based on simple conservation and distribution laws to investigate the impact of transient dynamics caused by the rebalancing of loads after an initial network failure…
Complex, interdependent systems are necessary to the delivery of goods and services critical to societal function. Here we demonstrate how interdependent systems respond to disruptions. Specifically, we change the spatial arrangement of a…
When modelling competing risks survival data, several techniques have been proposed in both the statistical and machine learning literature. State-of-the-art methods have extended classical approaches with more flexible assumptions that can…
We do the error analysis in reliability measures due to the assumption of independence amongst the component lifetimes. In reliability theory, we come across different n-component structures like series, parallel, and k-out-of-n systems. A…
Failure times of a machinery cannot always be assumed independent and identically distributed, e.g. if after reparations the machinery is not restored to a same-as-new condition. Framed within the renewal processes approach, a…