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We consider an information updating system where an information provider and an information receiver engage in an update process over time. Different from the existing literature where updates are countable (hard) and take effect either…
New model of software safety is offered. Distribution of mistakes in program on stages of life cycle is researched. Study of ways of increase of reliability of software at help simulation program is leaded.
There is empirical evidence from a range of disciplines that as the connectivity of a network increases, we observe an increase in the average fitness of the system. But at the same time, there is an increase in the proportion of…
This work considers stochastic comparisons of lifetimes of series and parallel systems with dependent and heterogeneous components having lifetimes following the proportional odds (PO) model. The joint distribution of component lifetimes is…
We consider the problem of governing systemic risk in a banking system model. The banking system model consists in an initial value problem for a system of stochastic differential equations whose dependent variables are the log-monetary…
We propose a dynamic model of dependence structure between financial institutions within a financial system and we construct measures for dependence and financial instability. Employing Markov structures of joint credit migrations, our…
The stability of a complex system generally decreases with increasing system size and interconnectivity, a counterintuitive result of widespread importance across the physical, life, and social sciences. Despite recent interest in the…
Electricity systems are experiencing increased effects of randomness and variability due to emerging stochastic assets. The increased effects introduce new uncertainties into power systems that can impact system operability and reliability.…
Uncertain information on input parameters of reliability models is usually modeled by considering these parameters as random, and described by marginal distributions and a dependence structure of these variables. In numerous real-world…
The concept of random dynamical system is a comparatively recent development combining ideas and methods from the well developed areas of probability theory and dynamical systems. Due to our inaccurate knowledge of the particular physical…
Dependence among multiple lifetimes is a key factor for pricing and evaluating the risk of joint life insurance products. The dependence structure can be exposed to model uncertainty when available data and information are limited. We…
The frequency of disruptive and newly emerging threats (e.g. man-made attacks--cyber and physical attacks; extreme natural events--hurricanes, earthquakes, and floods) has escalated dramatically in the last decade. Impacts of these events…
Reliability analysis is a sub-field of uncertainty quantification that assesses the probability of a system performing as intended under various uncertainties. Traditionally, this analysis relies on deterministic models, where experiments…
Complex non-linear interactions between banks and assets we model by two time-dependent Erd\H{o}s Renyi network models where each node, representing bank, can invest either to a single asset (model I) or multiple assets (model II). We use…
In this paper authors present a general methodology for age dependent reliability analysis of degrading or ageing systems, structures and components.The methodology is based on Bayesian methods and inference, its ability to incorporate…
Preventive control is a crucial strategy for power system operation against impending natural hazards, and its effectiveness fundamentally relies on the realism of scenario generation. While most existing studies employ sequential Monte…
In this paper we explore the evolution of transport capacity on networks with stochastic incidence of damage and accumulation of faults in their connections. For each damaged configuration of the network, we analyze a Markovian random…
A probabilistic method for solving time-dependent load-transfer models of fracture is developed. It is applicable to any rule of load redistribution, i.e, local, hierarchical, etc. In the new method, the fluctuations are generated during…
The lifetime of a system of connected units under some natural assumptions can be represented as a random variable Y defined as a weighted lattice polynomial of random lifetimes of its components. As such, the concept of a random variable Y…
With a changing climate, the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events are likely to increase, posing a threat to infrastructure systems' resilience. The response of infrastructure systems to localised failures depends on whether…