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Several groups have recently modeled evolutionary transitions from an ancestral allele to a beneficial allele separated by one or more intervening mutants. The beneficial allele can become fixed if a succession of intermediate mutants are…
We examine birth--death processes with state dependent transition probabilities and at least one absorbing boundary. In evolution, this describes selection acting on two different types in a finite population where reproductive events occur…
We consider the Moran process with two populations competing under an iterated Prisoners' Dilemma in the presence of mutation, and concentrate on the case where there are multiple Evolutionarily Stable Strategies. We perform a complete…
We consider a multistage cancer model in which cells are arranged in a $d$-dimensional integer lattice. Starting with all wild-type cells, we prove results about the distribution of the first time when two neutral mutations have accumulated…
Stochastic models of sequential mutation acquisition are widely used to quantify cancer and bacterial evolution. Across manifold scenarios, recurrent research questions are: how many cells are there with $n$ alterations, and how long will…
In this work, we investigate the population dynamics of tumor cells under therapeutic pressure. Although drug treatment initially induces a reduction in tumor burden, treatment failure frequently occurs over time due to the emergence of…
Agent-based stochastic models for finite populations have recently received much attention in the game theory of evolutionary dynamics. Both the ultimate fixation and the pre-fixation transient behavior are important to a full understanding…
We consider a stochastic model of population dynamics where each individual is characterised by a trait in {0,1,...,L} and has a natural reproduction rate, a logistic death rate due to age or competition and a probability of mutation…
We study stochastic evolutionary game dynamics in a population of finite size. Individuals in the population are divided into two dynamically evolving groups. The structure of the population is formally described by a Wright-Fisher type…
The unwelcome evolution of malignancy during cancer progression emerges through a selection process in a complex heterogeneous population structure. In the present work, we investigate evolutionary dynamics in a phenotypically heterogeneous…
Evolution occurs in populations of reproducing individuals. In stochastic descriptions of evolutionary dynamics, such as the Moran process, individuals are chosen randomly for birth and for death. If the same type is chosen for both steps,…
The appearance of cancer in a tissue is thought to be the result of two or more successive mutations. We propose a stochastic model that allows for an exact computation of the distribution of the waiting time for a second mutation. This…
Major efforts to sequence cancer genomes are now occurring throughout the world. Though the emerging data from these studies are illuminating, their reconciliation with epidemiologic and clinical observations poses a major challenge. In the…
Temporal environmental variations are ubiquitous in nature, yet most of the theoretical works in population genetics and evolution assume fixed environment. Here we analyze the effect of variations in carrying capacity on the fate of a…
We consider two versions of stochastic population models with mutation and selection. The first approach relies on a multitype branching process; here, individuals reproduce and change type (i.e., mutate) independently of each other,…
Population structure can have a significant effect on evolution. For some systems with sufficient symmetry, analytic results can be derived within the mathematical framework of evolutionary graph theory which relate to the outcome of the…
We study the long-time dynamics in non-Markovian single-population stochastic models, where one or more reactions are modelled as a stochastic process with a fat-tailed non-exponential distribution of waiting times, mimicking long-term…
We study a spatially inhomogeneous model of cancer growth based on Michaelis--Menten kinetics, subjected to additive Gaussian noise and multiplicative dichotomous noise. In presence of the latter, we can observe a transition between two…
In this paper we propose a Moran model that describes the population dynamics of two types: While the first type has a selective advantage during reproduction, the second type can avoid replacement during reproduction with some positive…
Tumor development is an evolutionary process in which a heterogeneous population of cells with differential growth capabilities compete for resources in order to gain a proliferative advantage. What are the minimal ingredients needed to…