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Monte-Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) methods are drawing great interest after yielding breakthrough results in computer Go. This paper proposes a Bayesian approach to MCTS that is inspired by distributionfree approaches such as UCT [13], yet…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-03-19 Gerald Tesauro , V T Rajan , Richard Segal

Contextual dueling bandit is used to model the bandit problems, where a learner's goal is to find the best arm for a given context using observed noisy human preference feedback over the selected arms for the past contexts. However,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-17 Arun Verma , Zhongxiang Dai , Xiaoqiang Lin , Patrick Jaillet , Bryan Kian Hsiang Low

Monte Carlo Tree Search is a popular method for solving decision making problems. Faster implementations allow for more simulations within the same wall clock time, directly improving search performance. To this end, we present an…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-08-29 James Ragan , Fred Y. Hadaegh , Soon-Jo Chung

We address the problem of identifying the optimal policy with a fixed confidence level in a multi-armed bandit setup, when \emph{the arms are subject to linear constraints}. Unlike the standard best-arm identification problem which is well…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-26 Emil Carlsson , Debabrota Basu , Fredrik D. Johansson , Devdatt Dubhashi

Computational models are powerful tools for understanding human cognition and behavior. They let us express our theories clearly and precisely, and offer predictions that can be subtle and often counter-intuitive. However, this same…

Performance of machine learning algorithms depends critically on identifying a good set of hyperparameters. While recent approaches use Bayesian optimization to adaptively select configurations, we focus on speeding up random search through…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-06-20 Lisha Li , Kevin Jamieson , Giulia DeSalvo , Afshin Rostamizadeh , Ameet Talwalkar

Bayesian optimization through Gaussian process regression is an effective method of optimizing an unknown function for which every measurement is expensive. It approximates the objective function and then recommends a new measurement point…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-05-17 Hildo Bijl , Thomas B. Schön , Jan-Willem van Wingerden , Michel Verhaegen

We deal with Bayesian inference for Beta autoregressive processes. We restrict our attention to the class of conditionally linear processes. These processes are particularly suitable for forecasting purposes, but are difficult to estimate…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-08-03 R. Casarin , L. Dalla Valle , F. Leisen

The exploration/exploitation (E/E) dilemma arises naturally in many subfields of Science. Multi-armed bandit problems formalize this dilemma in its canonical form. Most current research in this field focuses on generic solutions that can be…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-07-24 Francis Maes , Damien Ernst , Louis Wehenkel

We consider function optimization as a sequential decision making problem under budget constraint. This constraint limits the number of objective function evaluations allowed during the optimization. We consider an algorithm inspired by a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-06 Philippe Preux , Rémi Munos , Michal Valko

Real-world distributed systems and networks are often unreliable and subject to random failures of its components. Such a stochastic behavior affects adversely the complexity of optimization tasks performed routinely upon such systems, in…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-12-12 Milos Hauskrecht , Tomas Singliar

Leveraging planning during learning and decision-making is central to the long-term development of intelligent agents. Recent works have successfully combined tree-based search methods and self-play learning mechanisms to this end. However,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-11-01 Matthew V Macfarlane , Edan Toledo , Donal Byrne , Paul Duckworth , Alexandre Laterre

We study the problem of selecting a subset from a large action space shared by a family of bandits. In many natural situations, while the nominal set of actions is large, actions are highly correlated: many yield similar rewards across…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Quan Zhou , Mark Kozdoba , Shie Mannor

In this report, we survey Bayesian Optimization methods focussed on the Multi-Armed Bandit Problem. We take the help of the paper "Portfolio Allocation for Bayesian Optimization". We report a small literature survey on the acquisition…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-12-16 Abhilash Nandy , Chandan Kumar , Deepak Mewada , Soumya Sharma

The combination of Monte Carlo tree search and neural networks has revolutionized online planning. As neural network approximations are often imperfect, we ask whether uncertainty estimates about the network outputs could be used to improve…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Nir Greshler , David Ben Eli , Carmel Rabinovitz , Gabi Guetta , Liran Gispan , Guy Zohar , Aviv Tamar

We are developing a general framework for using learned Bayesian models for decision-theoretic control of search and reasoningalgorithms. We illustrate the approach on the specific task of controlling both general and domain-specific…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-14 Eric J. Horvitz , Yongshao Ruan , Carla P. Gomes , Henry Kautz , Bart Selman , David Maxwell Chickering

The design of multiple experiments is commonly undertaken via suboptimal strategies, such as batch (open-loop) design that omits feedback or greedy (myopic) design that does not account for future effects. This paper introduces new…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-04-29 Xun Huan , Youssef M. Marzouk

We discuss the Bayesian emulation approach to computational solution of multi-step portfolio studies in financial time series. "Bayesian emulation for decisions" involves mapping the technical structure of a decision analysis problem to…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-06-07 Kaoru Irie , Mike West

Causal knowledge can be used to support decision-making problems. This has been recognized in the causal bandits literature, where a causal (multi-armed) bandit is characterized by a causal graphical model and a target variable. The arms…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-14 Francisco N. F. Q. Simoes , Itai Feigenbaum , Mehdi Dastani , Thijs van Ommen

Our goal is to deploy a high-accuracy system starting with zero training examples. We consider an "on-the-job" setting, where as inputs arrive, we use real-time crowdsourcing to resolve uncertainty where needed and output our prediction…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2015-12-09 Keenon Werling , Arun Chaganty , Percy Liang , Chris Manning