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We consider the problem of sequentially choosing between a set of unbiased Monte Carlo estimators to minimize the mean-squared-error (MSE) of a final combined estimate. By reducing this task to a stochastic multi-armed bandit problem, we…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-05-15 James Neufeld , András György , Dale Schuurmans , Csaba Szepesvári

We consider the problem of optimizing a real-valued continuous function $f$ using a Bayesian approach, where the evaluations of $f$ are chosen sequentially by combining prior information about $f$, which is described by a random process…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2011-11-22 Romain Benassi , Julien Bect , Emmanuel Vazquez

Algorithm selection is typically based on models of algorithm performance, learned during a separate offline training sequence, which can be prohibitively expensive. In recent work, we adopted an online approach, in which a performance…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-01-31 Matteo Gagliolo , Juergen Schmidhuber

Many efficient algorithms with strong theoretical guarantees have been proposed for the contextual multi-armed bandit problem. However, applying these algorithms in practice can be difficult because they require domain expertise to build…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-10-23 Adam N. Elmachtoub , Ryan McNellis , Sechan Oh , Marek Petrik

Bayesian model-based reinforcement learning is a formally elegant approach to learning optimal behaviour under model uncertainty, trading off exploration and exploitation in an ideal way. Unfortunately, finding the resulting Bayes-optimal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-03-20 Arthur Guez , David Silver , Peter Dayan

We study an original problem of pure exploration in a strategic bandit model motivated by Monte Carlo Tree Search. It consists in identifying the best action in a game, when the player may sample random outcomes of sequentially chosen pairs…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-02-16 Aurélien Garivier , Emilie Kaufmann , Wouter Koolen

Consider the problem of finding a population or a probability distribution amongst many with the largest mean when these means are unknown but population samples can be simulated or otherwise generated. Typically, by selecting largest…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-09-11 Peter Glynn , Sandeep Juneja

We extend Bayesian multi-armed bandit (MAB) algorithms beyond their original setting by making use of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods. A MAB is a sequential decision making problem where the goal is to learn a policy that maximizes…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-04-08 Iñigo Urteaga , Chris H. Wiggins

Monte Carlo Tree Search (MCTS) is particularly adapted to domains where the potential actions can be represented as a tree of sequential decisions. For an effective action selection, MCTS performs many simulations to build a reliable tree…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-09-10 Seydou Ba , Takuya Hiraoka , Takashi Onishi , Toru Nakata , Yoshimasa Tsuruoka

Online solvers for partially observable Markov decision processes have difficulty scaling to problems with large action spaces. Monte Carlo tree search with progressive widening attempts to improve scaling by sampling from the action space…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-11-04 John Mern , Anil Yildiz , Zachary Sunberg , Tapan Mukerji , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Monte Carlo planners can often return sub-optimal actions, even if they are guaranteed to converge in the limit of infinite samples. Known asymptotic regret bounds do not provide any way to measure confidence of a recommended action at the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-11-04 John Mern , Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Although the classical version of the Multi-Armed Bandits (MAB) framework has been applied successfully to several practical problems, in many real-world applications, the possible actions are not presented to the learner simultaneously,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-01 Marco Gabrielli , Francesco Trovò , Manuela Antonelli

The Markov Decision Process (MDP) is a popular framework for sequential decision-making problems, and uncertainty quantification is an essential component of it to learn optimal decision-making strategies. In particular, a Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-06 Jiaqi Guo , Chon Wai Ho , Sumeetpal S. Singh

We present a framework for the efficient computation of optimal Bayesian decisions under intractable likelihoods, by learning a surrogate model for the expected utility (or its distribution) as a function of the action and data spaces. We…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-11-13 Justin Alsing , Thomas D. P. Edwards , Benjamin Wandelt

One critical challenge for large language models (LLMs) for making complex reasoning is their reliance on matching reasoning patterns from training data, instead of proactively selecting the most appropriate cognitive strategy to solve a…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-03-18 Qin Liu , Wenxuan Zhou , Nan Xu , James Y. Huang , Fei Wang , Sheng Zhang , Hoifung Poon , Muhao Chen

A wide range of machine learning algorithms iteratively add data to the training sample. Examples include semi-supervised learning, active learning, multi-armed bandits, and Bayesian optimization. We embed this kind of data addition into…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-25 Julian Rodemann

The problem of selecting an algorithm that appears most suitable for a specific instance of an algorithmic problem class, such as the Boolean satisfiability problem, is called instance-specific algorithm selection. Over the past decade, the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-21 Alexander Tornede , Lukas Gehring , Tanja Tornede , Marcel Wever , Eyke Hüllermeier

We propose a hybrid algorithmic strategy for complex stochastic optimization problems, which combines the use of scenario trees from multistage stochastic programming with machine learning techniques for learning a policy in the form of a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2019-10-25 Boris Defourny , Damien Ernst , Louis Wehenkel

Sequential decision making under uncertainty is studied in a mixed observability domain. The goal is to maximize the amount of information obtained on a partially observable stochastic process under constraints imposed by a fully observable…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2016-03-16 Mikko Lauri , Risto Ritala

We consider selecting the top-$m$ alternatives from a finite number of alternatives via Monte Carlo simulation. Under a Bayesian framework, we formulate the sampling decision as a stochastic dynamic programming problem, and develop a…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2023-08-22 Gongbo Zhang , Yijie Peng , Jianghua Zhang , Enlu Zhou