Related papers: The basic reproduction number as a predictor for e…
In contrast to the common assumption in epidemic models that the rate of infection between individuals is constant, in reality, an individual's viral load determines their infectiousness. We compare the average and individual reproductive…
The outbreak of an infectious disease in a human population can lead to individuals responding with preventive measures in an attempt to avoid getting infected. This leads to changes in contact patterns. However, as we show in this paper,…
Recent outbreaks of monkeypox and Ebola, and worrying waves of COVID-19, influenza and respiratory syncytial virus, have all led to a sharp increase in the use of epidemiological models to estimate key epidemiological parameters. The…
We formulate a general age-of-infection epidemic model with two pathways: the symptomatic infections and the asymptomatic infections. We then calculate the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$ and establish the final size relation. It…
The effective reproduction number, R(t), is a central point in the study of infectious diseases. It establishes in an explicit way the extent of an epidemic spread process in a population. The current estimation methods for the time…
The main aim of the work is to present a general class of two time scales discrete-time epidemic models. In the proposed framework the disease dynamics is considered to act on a slower time scale than a second different process that could…
The ability to directly record human face-to-face interactions increasingly enables the development of detailed data-driven models for the spread of directly transmitted infectious diseases at the scale of individuals. Complete coverage of…
Contact tracing is an important control strategy for containing Ebola epidemics. From a theoretical perspective, explicitly incorporating contact tracing with disease dynamics presents challenges, and population level effects of contact…
Vector-borne diseases with reservoir cycles are complex to understand because new infections come from contacts of the vector with humans and different reservoirs. In this scenario, the basic reproductive number $\mathcal{R}^h_0$ of the…
Network epidemiology has become a core framework for investigating the role of human contact patterns in the spreading of infectious diseases. In network epidemiology represents the contact structure as a network of nodes (individuals)…
We consider the emergent behavior of viral spread when agents in a large population interact with each other over a contact network. When the number of agents is large and the contact network is a complete graph, it is well known that the…
We propose a compartmental model for vector-transmitted diseases, such as Malaria and Dengue, spreading over complex networks. Individuals are represented by independent random walkers and vectors by infected nodes. Both walkers and nodes…
We consider the problem of estimating the reproduction number $R_t$ of an epidemic for populations where the probability of detection of cases depends on a known covariate. We argue that in such cases the normal empirical estimator can fail…
A basic reproduction number, $R_0$, is a concept encountered frequently in the study of ecological and epidemiological models. It is routinely used to determine the stability of an extinction or a disease-free fixed point or steady state.…
Since the last century, deterministic compartmental models have emerged as powerful tools to predict and control epidemic outbreaks, in many cases helping to mitigate their impacts. A key quantity for these models is the so-called Basic…
We study the spreading of cooperative infections in an empirical temporal network of contacts between people, including health care workers and patients, in a hospital. The system exhibits a phase transition leading to one or several…
Compartmental epidemic models with dynamics that evolve over a graph network have gained considerable importance in recent years but analysis of these models is in general difficult due to their complexity. In this paper, we develop two…
In the study of epidemic dynamics a fundamental question is whether a pathogen initially affecting only one individual will give rise to a limited outbreak or to a widespread pandemic. The answer to this question crucially depends not only…
In the Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model of disease spreading, the time to extinction of the epidemics happens at an intermediate value of the per-contact transmission probability. Too contagious infections burn out fast in the…
Capturing the structure of a population and characterising contacts within the population are key to reliable projections of infectious disease. Two main elements of population structure -- contact heterogeneity and age -- have been…