Related papers: The basic reproduction number as a predictor for e…
Data of physical contacts and face-to-face communications suggest temporally varying networks as the media on which infections take place among humans and animals. Epidemic processes on temporal networks are complicated by complexity of…
We investigate disease spreading on eight empirical data sets of human contacts (mostly proximity networks recording who is close to whom, at what time). We compare three levels of representations of these data sets: temporal networks,…
A stochastic SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) epidemic model defined on a social network is analysed. The underlying social network is described by an Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi random graph but, during the course of the epidemic,…
Real epidemic spreading networks often composed of several kinds of networks interconnected with each other, and the interrelated networks have the different topologies and epidemic dynamics. Moreover, most human diseases are derived from…
The initial phase of an epidemic is often characterized by an exponential increase in the number of infected individuals. In this paper, we predict the exponential spreading rate of an epidemic on a complex network. We first find an…
A network epidemic model is studied. The underlying social network has two different types of group structures, households and workplaces, such that each individual belongs to exactly one household and one workplace. The random network is…
We consider a stochastic model of infection spread on the complete graph on $N$ vertices incorporating dynamic partnerships, which we assume to be monogamous. This can be seen as a variation on the contact process in which some form of edge…
This paper presents a disease-severity-structured epidemic model with treatment necessary only to severe infective individuals to discuss the effect of the treatment capacity on the disease transmission. It is shown that a backward…
The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We…
Analytical expressions for the basic reproduction number, R0, have been obtained in the past for a wide variety of mathematical models for infectious disease spread, along with expressions for the expected final size of an outbreak.…
We study the SIR model of epidemics on positively correlated heterogeneous networks with population variability, and explore the dependence of the final outbreak size on the network heterogeneity strength and basic reproduction number $R_0$…
This paper is concerned with stochastic SIR and SEIR epidemic models on random networks in which individuals may rewire away from infected neighbors at some rate $\omega$ (and reconnect to non-infectious individuals with probability…
Epidemic outbreaks of new pathogens, or known pathogens in new populations, cause a great deal of fear because they are hard to predict. For theoretical models of disease spreading, on the other hand, quantities characterizing the outbreak…
Reproduction numbers are widely used for the estimation and prediction of epidemic spreading processes over networks. However, reproduction numbers do not enable estimation and prediction in individual communities within networks, and they…
Early estimates of the transmission potential of emerging and re-emerging infections are increasingly used to inform public health authorities on the level of risk posed by outbreaks. Existing methods to estimate the reproduction number…
Branching processes are widely used to model evolutionary and population dynamics as well as the spread of infectious diseases. To characterize the dynamics of their growth or spread, the basic reproduction number $R_0$ has received…
Epidemiological contact network models have emerged as an important tool in understanding and predicting the spread of infectious disease, due to their capacity to engage individual heterogeneity that may underlie essential dynamics of a…
The effect of diffusion rates on the basic reproduction number of a general compartmental reaction-diffusion epidemic model in a heterogeneous environment is considered. It is shown when the diffusion rates tend to zero, the limit of the…
We propose a novel approach to approximate the basic reproduction number $R_0$ as spectral radius of the Next-Generation Operator in time-periodic population models by characterizing the latter via evolution semigroups. Once birth/infection…
Despite improved control measures, Ebola remains a serious public health risk in African regions where recurrent outbreaks have been observed since the initial epidemic in 1976. Using epidemic modeling and data from two well-documented…