Related papers: The basic reproduction number as a predictor for e…
The spread of a contagious disease clearly depends on when infected individuals come into contact with susceptible ones. Such effects, however, have remained largely unexplored in the study of epidemic outbreaks. In particular, it remains…
The basic reproduction number $R_0$ is a fundamental quantity in epidemiological modeling, reflecting the typical number of secondary infections that arise from a single infected individual. While $R_0$ is widely known to scientists,…
For nearly a century, the initial reproduction number (R0) has been used as a one number summary to compare outbreaks of infectious disease, yet there is no `standard' estimator for R0. Difficulties in estimating R0 arise both from how a…
We argue that the time from the onset of infectiousness to infectious contact, which we call the contact interval, is a better basis for inference in epidemic data than the generation or serial interval. Since contact intervals can be…
The contact structure between hosts has a critical influence on disease spread. However, most networkbased models used in epidemiology tend to ignore heterogeneity in the weighting of contacts. This assumption is known to be at odds with…
Understanding how epidemics spread in a system is a crucial step to prevent and control outbreaks, with broad implications on the system's functioning, health, and associated costs. This can be achieved by identifying the elements at higher…
In this paper, we study a reaction-diffusion vector-host epidemic model. We define the basic reproduction number $R_0$ and show that $R_0$ is a threshold parameter: if $R_0\le 1$ the disease free steady state is globally stable; if $R_0>1$…
Studies about epidemic modelling have been conducted since before 19th century. Both deterministic and stochastiic model were used to capture the dynamic of infection in the population. The purpose of this project is to investigate the…
A great issue of discussion of an infectious disease is its basic reproduction number R0, which provides an estimation of the contagiousness of the disease. When R0 > 1, the disease spread will potentially lead to an outbreak, such that of…
The structure of sexual contacts, its contacts network and its temporal interactions, play an important role in the spread of sexually transmitted infections. Unfortunately, that kind of data is very hard to obtain. One of the few…
Due to its ability to summarise 'real-time' epidemic behaviour, the time-dependent reproduction number, Rt, is a useful metric for tracking pathogen transmission and quantifying the effects of interventions during infectious disease…
The epidemic threshold of a spreading process indicates the condition for the occurrence of the wide spreading regime, thus representing a predictor of the network vulnerability to the epidemic. Such threshold depends on the natural history…
This is a pedagogical paper on estimating the number of people that can be infected by one infectious person during an epidemic outbreak, known as the reproduction number. Knowing the number is crucial for developing policy responses. There…
We investigate the impact of misinformation about the contact structure on the ability to predict disease outbreaks. We base our study on 31 empirical temporal networks and tune the frequencies in errors in the node identities or timestamps…
Human to human transmissible infectious diseases spread in a population using human interactions as its transmission vector. The early stages of such an outbreak can be modeled by a graph whose edges encode these interactions between…
During an epidemic outbreak, decision makers crucially need accurate and robust tools to monitor the pathogen propagation. The effective reproduction number, defined as the expected number of secondary infections stemming from one…
When analysing new emerging infectious disease outbreaks one typically has observational data over a limited period of time and several parameters to estimate, such as growth rate, R0, serial or generation interval distribution, latent and…
In the real world, many complex systems interact with other systems. In addition, the intra- or inter-systems for the spread of information about infectious diseases and the transmission of infectious diseases are often not random, but with…
We investigate what structural aspects of a collection of twelve empirical temporal networks of human contacts are important to disease spreading. We scan the entire parameter spaces of the two canonical models of infectious disease…
The time-varying reproduction number $R(t)$ measures the number of new infections per infectious individual and is closely correlated with the time series of infection incidence by definition. The timings of actual infections are rarely…