Related papers: The lower tail: Poisson approximation revisited
In this paper, we first use the distribution of the number of records to demonstrate that the right tail probabilities of counts of rare events are generally better approximated by the right tail probabilities of Poisson distribution than…
Poisson approximation using Stein's method has been extensively studied in the literature. The main focus has been on bounding the total variation distance. This paper is a first attempt on moderate deviations in Poisson approximation for…
Janson and Janson, Luczak and Rucinski proved several inequalities for the lower tail of the distribution of the number of events that hold, when all the events are up-sets (increasing events) of a special form - each event is the…
The exact expression for the probability density $p_{_N}(x)$ for sums of a finite number $N$ of random independent terms is obtained. It is shown that the very tail of $p_{_N}(x)$ has a Gaussian form if and only if all the random terms are…
Let $(\xi_i)_{i=1,...,n}$ be a sequence of independent and symmetric random variables. We consider the upper bounds on tail probabilities of self-normalized deviations $$ \mathbf{P} \Big( \max_{1\leq k \leq n} \sum_{i=1}^{k} |\xi_i|\big/…
In this paper we present various new inequalities for tail proabilities for distributions that are elements of the most improtant exponential families. These families include the Poisson distributions, the Gamma distributions, the binomial…
Bayesian, classical, and extended maximum likelihood approaches to estimation of upper limits in experiments with small numbers of signal events are surveyed. The discussion covers only experiments whose outcomes are well described by a…
In this paper, we obtain optimal uniform lower tail estimates for the probability distribution of the properly scaled length of the longest up/right path of the last passage site percolation model considered by Johansson in [12]. The…
An explicit upper bound on the tail probabilities for the normalized Rademacher sums is given. This bound, which is best possible in a certain sense, is asymptotically equivalent to the corresponding tail probability of the standard normal…
It is well known that a binomial $(n,p)$ can be approximated by a Poisson distribution with parameter $np$. The typical approach in undergraduate probability texts is to show a convergence result for the distribution of the binomial as $n$…
We prove tail estimates for variables $\sum_i f(X_i)$, where $(X_i)_i$ is the trajectory of a random walk on an undirected graph (or, equivalently, a reversible Markov chain). The estimates are in terms of the maximum of the function $f$,…
Known Bernstein-type upper bounds on the tail probabilities for sums of independent zero-mean sub-exponential random variables are improved in several ways at once. The new upper bounds have a certain optimality property.
For r \ge 2, let X be the number of r-armed stars K_{1,r} in the binomial random graph G_{n,p}. We study the upper tail \Pr(X \ge (1+\epsilon)\E X), and establish exponential bounds which are best possible up to constant factors in the…
Let $\{\xi_1,\xi_2,\ldots\}$ be a sequence of independent but not necessarily identically distributed random variables. In this paper, the sufficient conditions are found under which the tail probability…
We overview results on the topic of Poisson approximation that are missed in existing surveys. The topic of Poisson approximation to the distribution of a sum of integer-valued random variables is presented as well. We do not restrict…
The extremal tail probabilities of moving sums in a marked Poisson random field is examined here. These sums are computed by adding up the weighted occurrences of events lying within a scanning set of fixed shape and size. Change of measure…
The authors announce a general tail estimate, called a decoupling inequality, for a symmetrized sum of non-linear $k$-correlations of $n>k$ independent random variables.
Finite sample properties of random covariance-type matrices have been the subject of much research. In this paper we focus on the "lower tail" of such a matrix, and prove that it is subgaussian under a simple fourth moment assumption on the…
Count data are omnipresent in many applied fields, often with overdispersion. With mixtures of Poisson distributions representing an elegant and appealing modelling strategy, we focus here on how the tail behaviour of the mixing…
In this paper, I present a completely new type of upper and lower bounds on the right-tail probabilities of continuous random variables with unbounded support and with semi-bounded support from the left. The presented upper and lower…