Related papers: The lower tail: Poisson approximation revisited
In this work, we investigate how to develop sharp concentration inequalities for sub-Weibull random variables, including sub-Gaussian and sub-exponential distributions. Although the random variables may not be sub-Guassian, the tail…
We give explicit bounds for the tail probabilities for sums of independent geometric or exponential variables, possibly with different parameters.
``Behind every limit theorem, there is an inequality'' said Kolmogorov. We say ``for every inequality, there is an approximate inequality under approximate regularity conditions.'' Suppose $X, X'$ are independent and identically distributed…
Consider a graph on randomly scattered points in an arbitrary space, with two points $x,y$ connected with probability $\phi(x,y)$. Suppose the number of points is large but the mean number of isolated points is $O(1)$. We give general…
Concentration inequalities form an essential toolkit in the study of high dimensional (HD) statistical methods. Most of the relevant statistics literature in this regard is based on sub-Gaussian or sub-exponential tail assumptions. In this…
This paper considers estimation and inference about tail features when the observations beyond some threshold are censored. We first show that ignoring such tail censoring could lead to substantial bias and size distortion, even if the…
We provide an inequality which is a useful tool in studying both large deviation results and limit theorems for sums of random fields with "negligible" small values. In particular, the inequality covers cases of stable limits for random…
Let $N$ be the number of triangles in an Erd\H{o}s-R\'enyi graph $\mathcal{G}(n,p)$ on $n$ vertices with edge density $p=d/n,$ where $d>0$ is a fixed constant. It is well known that $N$ weakly converges to the Poisson distribution with mean…
New lower bounds on the total variation distance between the distribution of a sum of independent Bernoulli random variables and the Poisson random variable (with the same mean) are derived via the Chen-Stein method. The new bounds rely on…
In this paper we present a tail inequality for the maximum of partial sums of a weakly dependent sequence of random variables that are not necessarily bounded. The class considered includes geometrically and subgeometrically strongly mixing…
Bounds of the accuracy of the normal approximation to the distribution of a sum of independent random variables are improved under relaxed moment conditions, in particular, under the absence of moments of orders higher than the second.…
This paper addresses the advancement of probability tail bound analysis, a crucial statistical tool for assessing the probability of large deviations of random variables from their expected values. Traditional tail bounds, such as Markov's,…
We prove new lower bounds for the upper tail probabilities of suprema of Gaussian processes. Unlike many existing bounds, our results are not asymptotic, but supply strong information when one is only a little into the upper tail. We…
Heavy tailed phenomena are naturally analyzed by extreme value statistics. A crucial step in such an analysis is the estimation of the extreme value index, which describes the tail heaviness of the underlying probability distribution. We…
Let $X$ count the number of $r$-stars in the random binomial graph $\mathbb{G}(n,p)$. We determine, for fixed $r$ and $\varepsilon > 0$, the asymptotics of $\log \mathbb{P}(X \ge (1 + \varepsilon)\mathbb{E} X)$ assuming only $\mathbb{E} X…
Often, it is required to estimate the probability that a quantity such as toxicity level, plutonium, temperature, rainfall, damage, wind speed, wave size, earthquake magnitude, risk, etc., exceeds an unsafe high threshold. The probability…
One aspect of Poisson approximation is that the support of the random variable of interest is often finite while the support of the Poisson distribution is not. In this paper we will remedy this by examining truncated negative binomial (of…
Empirical distributions have their in-sample maxima as natural censoring. We look at the "hidden tail", that is, the part of the distribution in excess of the maximum for a sample size of $n$. Using extreme value theory, we examine the…
We take an $L_1$-dense class of functions $\Cal F$ on a measurable space $(X,\Cal X)$ and a sequence of i.i.d. $X$-valued random variables $\xi_1,\dots,\xi_n$, and give a good estimate on the tail behaviour of $\sup\limits_{f\in\Cal…
We construct a new tail bound for the sum of independent random variables for situations in which the expected value of the sum is known and each random variable lies within a specified interval, which may be different for each variable.…