Related papers: Default Probability Estimation via Pair Copula Con…
Due to the recent increase in interest in Financial Technology (FinTech), applications like credit default prediction (CDP) are gaining significant industrial and academic attention. In this regard, CDP plays a crucial role in assessing the…
Parametric factor copula models typically work well in modeling multivariate dependencies due to their flexibility and ability to capture complex dependency structures. However, accurately estimating the linking copulas within these models…
Copulas have become an important tool in the modern best practice Enterprise Risk Management, often supplanting other approaches to modelling stochastic dependence. However, choosing the `right' copula is not an easy task, and the…
Modern large scale datasets are often plagued with missing entries. For tabular data with missing values, a flurry of imputation algorithms solve for a complete matrix which minimizes some penalized reconstruction error. However, almost…
This article aims to discuss some basics in field of credit modeling, specifically the pricing issue of FtD contract. We demonstrate how the popular copula approach is used in pricing FtD contract, and give a stimulation example of such…
The distribution function of the sum $Z$ of two standard normally distributed random variables $X$ and $Y$ is computed with the concept of copulas to model the dependency between $X$ and $Y$. By using implicit copulas such as the Gauss- or…
A method is developed to estimate the parameters of a Levy copula of a discretely observed bivariate compound Poisson process without knowledge of common shocks. The method is tested in a small sample simulation study. Also, the method is…
Predicting corporate default risk has long been a crucial topic in the finance field, as bankruptcies impose enormous costs on market participants as well as the economy as a whole. This paper aims to forecast frailty correlated default…
Due to the lack of reliable market information, building financial term-structures may be associated with a significant degree of uncertainty. In this paper, we propose a new term-structure interpolation method that extends classical spline…
How to forecast next year's portfolio-wide credit default rate based on last year's default observations and the current score distribution? A classical approach to this problem consists of fitting a mixture of the conditional score…
Much research in systemic risk is focused on default contagion. While this demands an understanding of valuation, fewer articles specifically deal with the existence, the uniqueness, and the computation of equilibrium prices in structural…
Risk-averse investors often wish to exclude stocks from their portfolios that bear high credit risk, which is a measure of a firm's likelihood of bankruptcy. This risk is commonly estimated by constructing signals from quarterly accounting…
Multivariate volatility modeling and forecasting are crucial in financial economics. This paper develops a copula-based approach to model and forecast realized volatility matrices. The proposed copula-based time series models can capture…
Vine pair-copula constructions exist for a mix of continuous and ordinal variables. In some steps, this can involve estimating a bivariate copula for a pair of mixed continuous-ordinal variables. To assess the adequacy of copula fits for…
In this article, we consider a 2 factors-model for pricing defaultable bond with discrete default intensity and barrier where the 2 factors are stochastic risk free short rate process and firm value process. We assume that the default event…
We consider the problem of computing the Value Adjustment of European contingent claims when default of either party is considered, possibly including also funding and collateralization requirements. As shown in Brigo et al. (\cite{BLPS},…
This paper proposes a modelling strategy to infer the impact of a covariate on the dependence structure of right-censored clustered event time data. The joint survival function of the event times is modelled using a parametric conditional…
In this paper we assume a multivariate risk model has been developed for a portfolio and its capital derived as a homogeneous risk measure. The Euler (or gradient) principle, then, states that the capital to be allocated to each component…
The purpose of this paper is introducing rigorous methods and formulas for bilateral counterparty risk credit valuation adjustments (CVA's) on interest-rate portfolios. In doing so, we summarize the general arbitrage-free valuation…
A three-dimensional extension of the structural default model with firms' values driven by correlated diffusion processes is presented. Green's function based semi-analytical methods for solving the forward calibration problem and backward…