Related papers: Default Probability Estimation via Pair Copula Con…

We introduce a new method for estimating the parameter of the bivariate Clayton copulas within the framework of Algorithmic Inference. The method consists of a variant of the standard boot-strapping procedure for inferring random…

While defaults are rare events, losses can be substantial even for credit portfolios with a large number of contracts. Therefore, not only a good evaluation of the probability of default is crucial, but also the severity of losses needs to…

In recent years research on credit risk modelling has mainly focused on default probabilities. Recovery rates are usually modelled independently, quite often they are even assumed constant. Then, however, the structural connection between…

We propose pair copula constructed point-optimal sign tests in the context of linear and nonlinear predictive regressions with endogenous, persistent regressors, and disturbances exhibiting serial (nonlinear) dependence. The proposed…

A pair-copula construction is a decomposition of a multivariate copula into a structured system, called regular vine, of bivariate copulae or pair-copulae. The standard practice is to model these pair-copulae parametrically, which comes at…

This paper presents a robust method for estimating copula models to evaluate dependence between failure modes in one-shot devices-systems designed for single use and destroyed upon activation. Traditional approaches, such as maximum…

We introduce the general arbitrage-free valuation framework for counterparty risk adjustments in presence of bilateral default risk, including default of the investor. We illustrate the symmetry in the valuation and show that the adjustment…

The Multiplicative Error Model (Engle (2002)) for nonnegative valued processes is specified as the product of a (conditionally autoregressive) scale factor and an innovation process with nonnegative support. A multivariate extension allows…

We apply multiple testing procedures to the validation of estimated default probabilities in credit rating systems. The goal is to identify rating classes for which the probability of default is estimated inaccurately, while still…

PD curve calibration refers to the transformation of a set of rating grade level probabilities of default (PDs) to another average PD level that is determined by a change of the underlying portfolio-wide PD. This paper presents a framework…

Thanks to their ability to capture complex dependence structures, copulas are frequently used to glue random variables into a joint model with arbitrary marginal distributions. More recently, they have been applied to solve statistical…

In this paper we present a new multi-asset pricing model, which is built upon newly developed families of solvable multi-parameter single-asset diffusions with a nonlinear smile-shaped volatility and an affine drift. Our multi-asset pricing…

We consider the problem of accurately measuring the credit risk of a portfolio consisting of loss exposures such as loans, bonds and other financial assets. We are particularly interested in the probability of large portfolio losses. We…

In this paper we present a Bayesian competing risk proportional hazards model to describe mortgage defaults and prepayments. We develop Bayesian inference for the model using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Implementation of the model is…

We prove that the default times (or any of their minima) in the dynamic Gaussian copula model of Cr{\'e}pey, Jeanblanc, and Wu (2013) are invariance times in the sense of Cr{\'e}pey and Song (2017), with related invariance probability…

Valuing corporate bonds in systemic economies is challenging due to intricate webs of inter-institutional exposures. When a bank defaults, cascading losses propagate through the network, with payments determined by a system of fixed-point…

We present a joint copula-based model for insurance claims and sizes. It uses bivariate copulae to accommodate for the dependence between these quantities. We derive the general distribution of the policy loss without the restrictive…

Diffusion in a linear potential in the presence of position-dependent killing is used to mimic a default process. Different assumptions regarding transport coefficients, initial conditions, and elasticity of the killing measure lead to…

We propose a new copula model that can be used with replicated spatial data. Unlike the multivariate normal copula, the proposed copula is based on the assumption that a common factor exists and affects the joint dependence of all…

The current research on credit risk is primarily focused on modeling default probabilities. Recovery rates are often treated as an afterthought; they are modeled independently, in many cases they are even assumed constant. This is despite…