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We study a new technique for the asymptotic analysis of heavy-tailed systems conditioned on large deviations events. We illustrate our approach in the context of ruin events of multidimensional regularly varying random walks. Our approach…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-03-10 Jose Blanchet , Jingchen Liu

We consider the sum of two self-similar centred Gaussian processes with different self-similarity indices. Under non-negativity assumptions of covariance functions and some further minor conditions, we show that the asymptotic behaviour of…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-06-27 Frank Aurzada , Martin Kilian , Ercan Sönmez

We study risk processes with level dependent premium rate. Assuming that the premium rate converges, as the risk reserve increases, to the critical value in the net-profit condition, we obtain upper and lower bounds for the ruin…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-07 Denis Denisov , Niklas Gotthardt , Dmitry Korshunov , Vitali Wachtel

Let $\mathcal{T}$ be a rooted tree endowed with the natural partial order $\preceq$. Let $(Z(v))_{v\in \mathcal{T}}$ be a sequence of independent standard Gaussian random variables and let $\alpha = (\alpha_k)_{k=1}^\infty$ be a sequence of…

Probability · Mathematics 2021-07-12 Yong Han , Yanqi Qiu , Zipeng Wang

We study a general perturbed risk process with cumulative claims modelled by a subordinator with finite expectation, with the perturbation being a spectrally negative Levy process with zero expectation. We derive a Pollaczek-Hinchin type…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-09-07 Miljenko Huzak , Mihael Perman , Hrvoje Sikic , Zoran Vondracek

In this work, we study convergence in probability and almost sure convergence for weighted partial sums of random variables that are related to the class of generalized Oppenheim expansions. It is worth noting that the random variables…

Probability · Mathematics 2022-07-21 Rita Giuliano , Milto Hadjikyriakou

We study multidimensional Cram\'er-Lundberg risk processes where agents, located on a large sparse network, receive losses form their neighbors. To reduce the dimensionality of the problem, we introduce classification of agents according to…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-02-15 Hamed Amini , Zhongyuan Cao , Andreea Minca , Agnès Sulem

Gaussian random processes which variances reach theirs maximum values at unique points are considered. Exact asymptotic behaviors of probabilities of large absolute maximums of theirs trajectories have been evaluated using Double Sum Method…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-01-29 E. Hashorva , S. Kobelkov , V. I. Piterbarg

Based on a discrete version of the Pollaczeck-Khinchine formula, a general method to calculate the ultimate ruin probability in the Gerber-Dickson risk model is provided when claims follow a negative binomial mixture distribution. The…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-03 David J. Santana , Luis Rincon

We obtain the exact asymptotic result for the disorder-averaged probability distribution function for a random walk in a biased Sinai model and show that it is characterized by a creeping behavior of the displacement moments with time,…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2011-08-04 Gareth Woods , Igor V. Yurkevich , Igor V. Lerner , H. A. Kovtun

We consider two independent random variables with the given tail asymptotic (e.g. power or exponential). We find tail asymptotic for their sum and product. This is done by some cumbersome but purely technical computations and requires the…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-05-09 Andrey Sarantsev

We derive exact tail asymptotics of sojourn time above the level $u\geq 0$ $$ \mathbb{P}\left(v(u)\int_0^T \mathbb{I}(X(t)-ct>u)d t>x\right), \quad x\geq 0 $$ as $u\to\infty$, where $X$ is a Gaussian process with continuous sample paths,…

Probability · Mathematics 2019-08-14 Krzysztof Debicki , Peng Liu , Zbigniew Michna

We consider statistical inference for a class of mixed-effects models with system noise described by a non-Gaussian integrated Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. Under the asymptotics where the number of individuals goes to infinity with possibly…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-11-18 Takumi Imamura , Hiroki Masuda

This paper concerns the asymptotic behavior of a random variable $W_\lambda$ resulting from the summation of the functionals of a Gibbsian spatial point process over windows $Q_\lambda \uparrow R^d$. We establish conditions ensuring that…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-09-24 Aihua Xia , J. E. Yukich

We derive the exact asymptotics of $P(\sup_{u\leq t}X(u) > x)$ if $x$ and $t$ tend to infinity with $x/t$ constant, for a L\'{e}vy process $X$ that admits exponential moments. The proof is based on a renewal argument and a two-dimensional…

Probability · Mathematics 2009-04-26 Zbigniew Palmowski , Martijn Pistorius

Let $X$ be a real valued random variable with an unbounded distribution $F$ and let $Y$ be a nonnegative valued random variable with a unbounded distribution $G$, which satisfy that \begin{eqnarray*} P(X>x|Y=y)\sim h(y)P(X>x)…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-07-12 Jikun Chen , Hui Xu , Fengyang Cheng

A high order expansion of the renewal function is provided under the assumption that the inter-renewal time distribution is light tailed with finite moment generating function g on a neighborhood of 0. This expansion relies on complex…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-11-29 Clément Dombry , Landy Rabehasaina

Let \{X_1, X_2, ...\} be a sequence of positive independent and identically distributed random variables of Pareto-type with index \alpha>0 and let \{N(t); t\geq 0\} be a mixed Poisson process independent of the X_i's. For t\geq 0, define…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-06-13 S. A. Ladoucette

We study modified ruin probabilities in a Cram\'er-Lundberg model driven by a compound mixed Poisson process. In the heavy-tailed regime, if the integrated claim-size distribution is subexponential and the upper endpoint of the mixing…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-11 Noriyoshi Sakuma , Momoka Tashiro

Recent studies have demonstrated an interesting connection between the asymptotic behavior at ruin of a L\'evy insurance risk process under the Cram\'er-Lundberg and convolution equivalent conditions. For example, the limiting distributions…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-01-08 Philip S. Griffin