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This paper contains sharp estimates about the distribution of multiple random integrals of functions of several variables with respect to a normalized empirical measure, about the distribution of U-statistics and multiple Wiener-Ito…

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Peter Major

We present sharp tail asymptotics for the density and the distribution function of linear combinations of correlated log-normal random variables, that is, exponentials of components of a correlated Gaussian vector. The asymptotic behavior…

Probability · Mathematics 2016-01-07 Archil Gulisashvili , Peter Tankov

A fundamental problem in analysis of complex systems is getting a reliable estimate of entropy of their probability distributions over the state space. This is difficult because unsampled states can contribute substantially to the entropy,…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2023-07-19 Damián G. Hernández , Ahmed Roman , Ilya Nemenman

Low-rank tensor models are widely used in statistics. However, most existing methods rely heavily on the assumption that data follows a sub-Gaussian distribution. To address the challenges associated with heavy-tailed distributions…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-16 Xiaoyu Zhang , Di Wang , Guodong Li , Defeng Sun

Given an arbitrary continuous probability density function, it is introduced a conjugated probability density, which is defined through the Shannon information associated with its cumulative distribution function. These new densities are…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-01-26 H. M. de Oliveira , R. J. Cintra

A definition for elliptical tempered stable distribution, based on the characteristic function, have been explained which involve a unique spectral measure. This definition provides a framework for creating a connection between infinite…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-08-18 Hassan A. Fallahgoul , Young S. Kim

The family of location and scale mixtures of Gaussians has the ability to generate a number of flexible distributional forms. It nests as particular cases several important asymmetric distributions like the Generalised Hyperbolic…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-08-05 Darren Wraith , Florence Forbes

We provide a new extension of Breiman's Theorem on computing tail probabilities of a product of random variables to a multivariate setting. In particular, we give a complete characterization of regular variation on cones in $[0,\infty)^d$…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-09 Bikramjit Das , Vicky Fasen-Hartmann , Claudia Klüppelberg

Accurate forecasting of volatility and return quantiles is essential for evaluating financial tail risks such as value-at-risk and expected shortfall. This study proposes an extension of the traditional stochastic volatility model, termed…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-02 Makoto Takahashi , Yuta Yamauchi , Toshiaki Watanabe , Yasuhiro Omori

The exact expression for the probability density $p_{_N}(x)$ for sums of a finite number $N$ of random independent terms is obtained. It is shown that the very tail of $p_{_N}(x)$ has a Gaussian form if and only if all the random terms are…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-05-29 Michael I. Tribelsky

Conventional statistics begins with a model, and assigns a likelihood of obtaining any particular set of data. The opposite approach, beginning with the data and assigning a likelihood to any particular model, is explored here for the case…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-10-30 Timothy E. Holy

Estimating high quantiles plays an important role in the context of risk management. This involves extrapolation of an unknown distribution function. In this paper we propose three methods, namely, the normal approximation method, the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2007-06-13 Liang Peng , Yongcheng Qi

We combine geometric data analysis and stochastic modeling to describe the collective dynamics of complex systems. As an example we apply this approach to financial data and focus on the non-stationarity of the market correlation structure.…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2015-09-30 Yuriy Stepanov , Philip Rinn , Thomas Guhr , Joachim Peinke , Rudi Schäfer

We introduce a new class of multivariate heavy-tailed distributions that are convolutions of heterogeneous multivariate t-distributions. Unlike commonly used heavy-tailed distributions, the multivariate convolution-t distributions embody…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-04-02 Peter Reinhard Hansen , Chen Tong

We consider heavy-tailed distributions and compare the well-known estimators of the tail index, based on extreme value theory with a comparatively recent estimator based on a different idea.

Probability · Mathematics 2016-08-14 Vygantas Paulauskas , Marijus Vaičiulis

Recent studies have shown that heavy tails can emerge in stochastic optimization and that the heaviness of the tails have links to the generalization error. While these studies have shed light on interesting aspects of the generalization…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-02-14 Anant Raj , Melih Barsbey , Mert Gürbüzbalaban , Lingjiong Zhu , Umut Şimşekli

The mollified uniform distribution is rediscovered, which constitutes a ``soft'' version of the continuous uniform distribution. Important stochastic properties are presented and used to demonstrate potential fields of applications. For…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-02 Christian H. Weiß

A wide range of natural and social phenomena result in observables whose distributions can be well approximated by a power-law decay. The well-known Hill estimator of the tail exponent provides results which are in many respects superior to…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2009-05-20 Éva Rácz , János Kertész , Zoltán Eisler

This paper presents a class of new algorithms for distributed statistical estimation that exploit divide-and-conquer approach. We show that one of the key benefits of the divide-and-conquer strategy is robustness, an important…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-29 Stanislav Minsker , Nate Strawn

Normalising flows are tractable probabilistic models that leverage the power of deep learning to describe a wide parametric family of distributions, all while remaining trainable using maximum likelihood. We discuss how these methods can be…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-07-14 Simon Alexanderson , Gustav Eje Henter