Related papers: Frequentist confidence intervals for orbits
Two-line elements are widely used for space operations to predict the orbit with a moderate accuracy for 2-3 days. Local optimization methods, such as the nonlinear least squares method with differential corrections, can estimate a TLE as…
We continue the investigation of Bernstein-von Mises theorems for nonparametric Bayes procedures from [Ann. Statist. 41 (2013) 1999-2028]. We introduce multiscale spaces on which nonparametric priors and posteriors are naturally defined,…
We present a parameter estimation framework for gravitational wave (GW) signals that brings together several ideas to accelerate the inference process. First, we use the relative binning algorithm to evaluate the signal-to-noise-ratio…
We study the frequentist properties of confidence intervals for the On-Off problem. The methods include all those in common use today. We derive explicit formulas for the limits and calculate the true coverage and the expected lengths of…
We have extended the spectral dynamics formalism introduced by Binney & Spergel, and have implemented a semi-analytic method to represent regular orbits in any potential, making full use of their regularity. We use the spectral analysis…
We present a Bayesian parameter-estimation pipeline to measure the properties of inspiralling stellar-mass black hole binaries with LISA. Our strategy (i) is based on the coherent analysis of the three noise-orthogonal LISA data streams,…
When do nonparametric Bayesian procedures ``overfit''? To shed light on this question, we consider a binary regression problem in detail and establish frequentist consistency for a certain class of Bayes procedures based on hierarchical…
We discuss methods for modeling eclipsing binary stars using the "physical", "simplified" and "phenomenological" models. There are few realizations of the "physical" Wilson-Devinney (1971) code and its improvements, e.g. Binary Maker,…
In this paper reference and probability-matching priors are derived for the univariate Student $t$-distribution. These priors generally lead to procedures with properties frequentists can relate to while still retaining Bayes validity. The…
Continuous and precise space-based photometry has made it possible to measure the orbital frequency modulation of pulsating stars in binary systems with extremely high precision over long time spans. Frequency modulation caused by binary…
The properties of precessing, coalescing binary black holes are presently inferred through comparison with two approximate models of compact binary coalescence. In this work we show these two models often disagree substantially when…
Orbital motions from binary stars can broaden the observed line-of-sight velocity distribution of a stellar system, artificially inflating the measured line-of-sight velocity dispersion, which can in turn lead to erroneous conclusions about…
Positions of High-Mass X-ray Binaries are often known precisely enough to unambiguously identify the optical component, and a number of those stars are monitored by the OGLE and MACHO collaborations. The light curves of two such candidates…
Standard maximum-likelihood estimators for binary-star and exoplanet eccentricities are biased high, in the sense that the estimated eccentricity tends to be larger than the true eccentricity. As with most non-trivial observables, a simple…
As Einstein's equations for binary compact object inspiral have only been approximately or intermittently solved by analytic or numerical methods, the models used to infer parameters of gravitational wave (GW) sources are subject to…
It is difficult to discover pulsars via their gamma-ray emission because current instruments typically detect fewer than one photon per million rotations. This creates a significant computing challenge for isolated pulsars, where the…
Based on the physical randomization of completely randomized experiments, Rigdon and Hudgens (2015) propose two approaches to obtaining exact confidence intervals for the average causal effect on a binary outcome. They construct the first…
What, if anything, should a frequentist say about a single realized confidence interval (CI) and its chance of having covered the parameter? Jerzy Neyman's original answer was to refuse any nondegenerate probability for coverage ex post…
The period, mass ratio, eccentricity, and other orbital parameters are fundamental for investigating binary star evolution. However, the number of binaries with known orbital parameters remains limited. Utilizing the LAMOST-MRS survey, we…
Recent years have witnessed an upsurge of interest in employing flexible machine learning models for instrumental variable (IV) regression, but the development of uncertainty quantification methodology is still lacking. In this work we…