Related papers: Frequentist confidence intervals for orbits
We present numerical simulations of the periodic polarimetric variations produced by a binary star placed at the center of an empty spherical cavity inside a circumbinary ellipsoidal and optically thin envelope made of dust grains. Mie…
A new method is proposed for the correction of confidence intervals when the original interval does not have the correct nominal coverage probabilities in the frequentist sense. The proposed method is general and does not require any…
A fundamental class of inferential problems are those characterised by there having been a substantial degree of pre-data (or prior) belief that the value of a model parameter was equal or lay close to a specified value, which may, for…
Here we present speckle observations of 16 low-separation ($s<30$ AU) high probability candidate binaries from the catalog by Medan et al., where secondaries typically lack astrometric solutions in Gaia. From these speckle observations, we…
Shaping axi-symmetric planetary nebulae is easier if a companion interacts with a primary at the top of the asymptotic giant branch. To determine the impact of binarity on planetary nebula formation and shaping, we need to determine the…
Measurements are generally collected as unilateral or bilateral data in clinical trials or observational studies. For example, in ophthalmology studies, the primary outcome is often obtained from one eye or both eyes of an individual. In…
Orbits of 55 visual binary stars are computed using recent speckle interferometry data from the SOAR telescope: 33 first-time orbits and 22 revisions of previous orbit calculations. The orbital periods range from 1.4 to 370 years, the…
Planets that orbit only one of the stars in stellar binary systems (i.e., circumstellar) are dynamically constrained to a limited range of orbital parameters and thus understanding conditions on their stability is of great importance in…
A method is developed for fitting theoretically predicted astronomical spectra to an observed spectrum. Using a hierarchical Bayesian principle, the method takes both systematic and statistical measurement errors into account, which has not…
Because most large galaxies contain a central black hole, and galaxies often merge, black-hole binaries are expected to be common in galactic nuclei. Although they cannot be imaged, periodicities in the light curves of quasars have been…
We develop and apply two calibration procedures for checking the coverage of approximate Bayesian credible sets including intervals estimated using Monte Carlo methods. The user has an ideal prior and likelihood, but generates a credible…
In data mining, when binary prediction rules are used to predict a binary outcome, many performance measures are used in a vast array of literature for the purposes of evaluation and comparison. Some examples include classification…
Eclipsing binaries provide one of the most direct mechanisms for measuring stellar properties such as mass and radius, but historically, determining these properties has been non-trivial and computationally prohibitive. As such, only a…
Metrics of model goodness-of-fit, model comparison, and model parameter estimation are the main categories of statistical problems in science. Bayesian and frequentist methods that address these questions often rely on a likelihood…
Introductory texts on statistics typically only cover the classical "two sigma" confidence interval for the mean value and do not describe methods to obtain confidence intervals for other estimators. The present technical report fills this…
We present relative positions of visual binaries observed during 2009 with the FastCam "lucky-imaging" camera at the 1.5-m Carlos Sanchez Telescope (TCS) at the Observatorio del Teide. We obtained 424 CCD observations (averaged in 198 mean…
A reliable representation of uncertainty is essential for the application of modern machine learning methods in safety-critical settings. In this regard, the use of credal sets (i.e., convex sets of probability distributions) has recently…
We show that confidence intervals in a variance component model, with asymptotically correct uniform coverage probability, can be obtained by inverting certain test-statistics based on the score for the restricted likelihood. The results…
The characterization of an exoplanet's interior is an inverse problem, which requires statistical methods such as Bayesian inference in order to be solved. Current methods employ Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling to infer the…
Compact object binaries formed from dynamics interactions will generically have non-zero orbital eccentricity. The gravitational waves from such binaries can change drastically depending on how large the eccentricity is, ranging from…