Related papers: Editorial
Barlow (1985) hypothesized that the co-occurrence of two events $A$ and $B$ is "suspicious" if $P(A,B) \gg P(A) P(B)$. We first review classical measures of association for $2 \times 2$ contingency tables, including Yule's $Y$ (Yule, 1912),…
With the increasing frequency of major natural disasters, understanding their political consequences is of paramount importance for democratic accountability. The existing literature is deeply divided, with some studies finding that voters…
The 175th anniversary of the ASA provides an opportunity to look back into the past and peer into the future. What led our forebears to found the association? What commonalities do we still see? What insights might we glean from their…
Scaling analysis reveals striking regularities in earthquake occurrence. The time between any one earthquake and that following it is random, but it is described by the same universal-probability distribution for any spatial region and…
Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as sources of historical information, motivating the need for scalable audits on contested events and politically charged narratives in settings that mirror real user interactions. We…
We are grateful to all discussants of our re-visitation for their strong support in our enterprise and for their overall agreement with our perspective. Further discussions with them and other leading statisticians showed that the legacy of…
The impact of real world events on fictional media is particularly apparent in the American cartoon series The Simpsons. While there are often very direct pop culture references evident in the dialogue and visual gags of the show, subtle…
Communication networks are vulnerable to natural disasters, such as earthquakes or floods, as well as to physical attacks, such as an Electromagnetic Pulse (EMP) attack. Such real-world events happen at specific geographical locations and…
Holistic analysis of many real-world problems are based on data collected from multiple sources contributing to some aspect of that problem. The word fusion has also been used in the literature for such problems involving disparate data…
Safety analyses in terms of adverse events (AEs) are an important aspect of benefit-risk assessments of therapies. Compared to efficacy analyses AE analyses are often rather simplistic. The probability of an AE of a specific type is…
Traditional analyses of international terrorism have not sought to explain the emergence of rare but extremely severe events. Using the tools of extremal statistics to analyze the set of terrorist attacks worldwide between 1968 and 2004, as…
We study short-horizon forecasting of weekly terrorism incident counts using the Global Terrorism Database (GTD, 1970--2016). We build a reproducible pipeline with fixed time-based splits and evaluate a Bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) against…
We use a new method of studying the Hurst exponent with time and scale dependency. This new approach allow us to recover the major events affecting worldwide markets (such as the September 11th terrorist attack) and analyze the way those…
In the late nineties several authors suggested that the extra dimensions predicted by string theory might lead to observable effects at high energy colliders. The ATLAS experiment which will start taking data at the LHC in 2007 will be an…
Terrorism has become one of the most tedious problems to deal with and a prominent threat to mankind. To enhance counter-terrorism, several research works are developing efficient and precise systems, data mining is not an exception.…
Natural hazards are becoming increasingly expensive as climate change and development are exposing communities to greater risks. Preparation and recovery are critical for climate change resilience, and social media are being used more and…
The large-scale study of human mobility has been significantly enhanced over the last decade by the massive use of mobile phones in urban populations. Studying the activity of mobile phones allows us, not only to infer social networks…
Event datasets including those provided by Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) are based on reports from the media and international organizations, and are likely to suffer from reporting bias. Since the UCDP has strict inclusion criteria,…
Effective surveillance on the long-term public health impact due to war and terrorist attacks remain limited. Such health issues are commonly under-reported, specifically for a large group of individuals. For this purpose, efficient…
The frequency and magnitude of weather extreme events have increased significantly during the past few years in response to anthropogenic climate change. However, global statistical characteristics and underlying physical mechanisms are…