Related papers: Editorial
Occasionally during the course of the human learning experience we are faced with an anomaly. An aberration of sorts, which try as we might, defies appropriate classification. The recent paper by Spiegelman et al.--Chemical and forensic…
Having reliable estimates of the occurrence rates of extreme events is highly important for insurance companies, government agencies and the general public. The rarity of an extreme event is typically expressed through its return period,…
Given a random process $x(\tau)$ which undergoes stochastic resetting at a constant rate $r$ to a position drawn from a distribution ${\cal P}(x)$, we consider a sequence of dynamical observables $A_1, \dots, A_n$ associated to the…
Advances in deep learning systems have allowed large models to match or surpass human accuracy on a number of skills such as image classification, basic programming, and standardized test taking. As the performance of the most capable…
We survey different perspectives on the stochastic localization process of Eldan, a powerful construction that has had many exciting recent applications in high-dimensional probability and algorithm design. Unlike prior surveys on this…
We present an analytical approach to determining the expected cascade size in a broad range of dynamical models on the class of highly-clustered random graphs introduced by Gleeson [J. P. Gleeson, Phys. Rev. E 80, 036107 (2009)]. A…
Large language models (LLMs) have revolutionized scientific research with their exceptional capabilities and transformed various fields. Among their practical applications, LLMs have been playing a crucial role in mitigating threats to…
Being probabilistic models, during inference large language models (LLMs) display rare events: behaviour that is far from typical but highly significant. By definition all rare events are hard to see, but the enormous scale of LLM usage…
Many real world complex systems such as infrastructure, communication and transportation networks are embedded in space, where entities of one system may depend on entities of other systems. These systems are subject to geographically…
Recent years have seen the world become a closely connected society with the emergence of different types of social networks. Online social networks have provided a way to bridge long distances and establish numerous communication channels…
Is demand for conspiracy theories online linked to real-world hate crimes? By analyzing online search trends for 36 racially and politically-charged conspiracy theories in Michigan (2015-2019), we employ a one-dimensional convolutional…
A collaborative distributed binary decision problem is considered. Two statisticians are required to declare the correct probability measure of two jointly distributed memoryless process, denoted by $X^n=(X_1,\dots,X_n)$ and…
We study the extreme events taking place on complex networks. The transport on networks is modelled using random walks and we compute the probability for the occurance and recurrence of extreme events on the network. We show that the nodes…
We propose that catastrophic events are "outliers" with statistically different properties than the rest of the population and result from mechanisms involving amplifying critical cascades. Applications and the potential for prediction are…
Understanding the likelihood for an election to be tied is a classical topic in many disciplines including social choice, game theory, political science, and public choice. Despite a large body of literature and the common belief that ties…
This paper describes the analysis of quantitative characteristics of frequent sets and association rules in the posts of Twitter microblogs related to different event discussions. For the analysis, we used a theory of frequent sets,…
In recent years, social media has become one of the most popular platforms for communication. These platforms allow users to report real-world incidents that might swiftly and widely circulate throughout the whole social network. A social…
The plausibility of uncommon events and miracles based on testimony of such an event has been much discussed. When analyzing the probabilities involved, it has mostly been assumed that the common events can be taken as data in the…
This chapter is based on a talk given at the Science and Ultimate Reality meeting in March, 2002, in honour of John Archibald Wheeler. In it, I discuss some questions related to what can and cannot be said about the history of a quantum…
Language models (LM) are capable of remarkably complex linguistic tasks; however, numerical reasoning is an area in which they frequently struggle. An important but rarely evaluated form of reasoning is understanding probability…