Related papers: Editorial
Citations acknowledge the impact a scientific publication has on subsequent work. At the same time, deciding how and when to cite a paper, is also heavily influenced by social factors. In this work, we conduct an empirical analysis based on…
The need for new methods to deal with big data is a common theme in most scientific fields, although its definition tends to vary with the context. Statistical ideas are an essential part of this, and as a partial response, a thematic…
With the possible exception of gambling, meteorology, particularly precipitation forecasting, may be the area with which the general public is most familiar with probabilistic assessments of uncertainty. Despite the heavy use of stochastic…
The use of historical estimates in current studies is common in a wide variety of application areas. Nevertheless, despite their routine use the uncertainty associated with historical estimates is rarely properly accounted for in the…
The results of the public opinion poll performed in January 2015, just after the terrorist attack on the French satirical weekly magazine Charlie Hebdo and the kosher supermarket in Paris, when 17 people were killed, showed that a…
Humans are sensitive to suspicious coincidences when generalizing inductively over data, as they make assumptions as to how the data was sampled. This results in smaller, more specific hypotheses being favored over more general ones. For…
Could social media data aid in disaster response and damage assessment? Countries face both an increasing frequency and intensity of natural disasters due to climate change. And during such events, citizens are turning to social media…
Effective bounds on the union probability are well known to be beneficial in the analysis of stochastic problems in many areas, including probability theory, information theory, statistical communications, computing and operations research.…
The possible consequences for the same context may vary depending on the situation we refer to. However, current studies in natural language processing do not focus on situated commonsense reasoning under multiple possible scenarios. This…
Predicting future international events from textual information, such as news articles, has tremendous potential for applications in global policy, strategic decision-making, and geopolitics. However, existing datasets available for this…
We develop a statistical test to detect lookahead bias in economic forecasts generated by large language models (LLMs). Using state-of-the-art pre-training data detection techniques, we estimate the likelihood that a given prompt appeared…
Social media conversations frequently suffer from toxicity, creating significant issues for users, moderators, and entire communities. Events in the real world, like elections or conflicts, can initiate and escalate toxic behavior online.…
Socio-linguistic indicators of affectively-relevant phenomena, such as emotion or sentiment, are often extracted from text to better understand features of human-computer interactions, including on social media. However, an indicator that…
Background. In recent years, cyber security security user studies have been appraised in meta-research, mostly focusing on the completeness of their statistical inferences and the fidelity of their statistical reporting. However, estimates…
Population-level societal events, such as civil unrest and crime, often have a significant impact on our daily life. Forecasting such events is of great importance for decision-making and resource allocation. Event prediction has…
Can large language models (LLMs) simulate social surveys? To answer this question, we conducted millions of simulations in which LLMs were asked to answer subjective questions. A comparison of different LLM responses with the European…
Social media usage is often cited as a potential driver behind the rising suicide rates. However, distinguishing the causal effect - whether social media increases the risk of suicide - from reverse causality, where individuals already at…
We review mathematically tractable models for connected networks on random points in the plane, emphasizing the class of proximity graphs which deserves to be better known to applied probabilists and statisticians. We introduce and motivate…
The excitement and convergence of tweets on specific topics are well studied. However, by utilizing the position information of Tweet, it is also possible to analyze the position-sensitive tweet. In this research, we focus on bomb terrorist…
Dependence on information, including for some of the world's largest organisations such as governments and multi-national corporations, has grown rapidly in recent years. However, reports of information security breaches and their…