Related papers: Editorial
Who is the US President? The answer changes depending on when the question is asked. While large language models (LLMs) are evaluated on various reasoning tasks, they often miss a crucial dimension: time. In real-world scenarios, the…
This review is the updated and enlarged version of a talk delivered by J. S. on the occasion of the 1982 meeting of Nobel laureates at Lindau, and of talks given by B.-G. E. at several West German universities and Max Planck institutes in…
Despite recent advances in uncovering the quantitative features of stationary human activity patterns, many applications, from pandemic prediction to emergency response, require an understanding of how these patterns change when the…
We present an analytical approach to determining the expected cascade size in a broad range of dynamical models on the class of random networks with arbitrary degree distribution and nonzero clustering introduced in [M.E.J. Newman, Phys.…
Rational decision-making under uncertainty requires coherent degrees of belief in events. However, event probabilities generated by Large Language Models (LLMs) have been shown to exhibit incoherence, violating the axioms of probability…
Due to the rapid growth of social media platforms, these tools have become essential for monitoring information during ongoing disaster events. However, extracting valuable insights requires real-time processing of vast amounts of data. A…
The September 11 attack on the US has revealed an unprecedented terrorism worldwide range of destruction. Recently, it has been related to the percolation of worldwide spread passive supporters. This scheme puts the suppression of the…
Coulomb gases are special probability distributions, related to potential theory, that appear at many places in pure and applied mathematics and physics. In these short expository notes, we focus on some models, ideas, and structures. We…
We report the results of identical pre- and post-event surveys given to attendees of a talk, two-sided conversation, and Q&A centered around the book If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies at Harvard University in March 2026, covering perceived…
Landslides often hit newsstands due to their destructive and potentially fatal effects. News are a valuable source of information for creating or enriching disaster databases and for expediting media-based studies of the dynamics of media…
Small-world networks (SWN), obtained by randomly adding to a regular structure additional links (AL), are of current interest. In this article we explore (based on physical models) a new variant of SWN, in which the probability of realizing…
The rapid worldwide spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model which…
In this work, we reveal the structure of global news coverage of disasters and its determinants by using a large-scale news coverage dataset collected by the GDELT (Global Data on Events, Location, and Tone) project that monitors news media…
Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate partial forecasting competence across social, political, and economic events. Yet, their predictive ability varies sharply with domain structure and prompt framing. We investigate how forecasting…
In this paper, we develop the themes presented at the 2003 Joint Complexity Conference at the London School of Economics and subsequently published in The Intelligencer (2004) and O Tempo Das Redes (2008). Following the data analysis of the…
Studying event time series is a powerful approach for analyzing the dynamics of complex dynamical systems in many fields of science. In this paper, we describe the method of event coincidence analysis to provide a framework for quantifying…
Some statements have one well-defined continuation (e.g., "the Eiffel Tower is in [Paris]"), whereas others have a natural distribution over multiple options (e.g., "the weighted coin flip was [Heads/Tails].") We argue that language model…
Event log analysis is an important task that security professionals undertake. Event logs record key information on activities that occur on computing devices, and due to the substantial number of events generated, they consume a large…
This volume contains the papers presented at the 6th conference on Machines, Computations and Universality (MCU 2013). MCU 2013 was held in Zurich, Switzerland, September 9-11, 2013. The MCU series began in Paris in 1995 and has since been…
As the knowledge landscape evolves and large language models (LLMs) become increasingly widespread, there is a growing need to keep these models updated with current events. While existing benchmarks assess general factual recall, few…