Related papers: Forecasting the solar activity cycle: new insights
Whether the upcoming cycle 24 of solar activity will be strong or not is being hotly debated. The solar cycle is produced by a complex dynamo mechanism. We model the last few solar cycles by `feeding' observational data of the Sun's polar…
Stellar magnetic fields are produced by a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism working in their interior -- which relies on the interaction between plasma flows and magnetic fields. The Sun, being a well-observed star, offers an unique…
Recent results indicate that the Babcock-Leighton mechanism for poloidal field creation plays an important role in the solar cycle. However, modelling this mechanism has not always correctly captured the underlying physics. In particular,…
The polar magnetic field precursor is considered to be the most robust and physics-based method for the prediction of the next solar cycle strength. However, to make a reliable prediction of a cycle, is the polar field at the solar minimum…
Context. Solar activity cycles vary in amplitude and duration. The variations can be at least partly explained by fluctuations in dynamo parameters. Aims. We want to restrict uncertainty in fluctuating dynamo parameters and find out which…
Stellar magnetic activity of solar like stars is thought to be due to an internal dynamo. While the Sun has been the subject of intense research for refining dynamo models, observations of magnetic cyclic activity in solar type stars have…
Theoretical models for the solar dynamo range from simple low-dimensional ``toy models'' to complex 3D-MHD simulations. Here we mainly discuss appproaches that are motivated and guided by solar (and stellar) observations. We give a brief…
We begin with a review of the predictions for cycle~24 before its onset. After summarizing the basics of the flux transport dynamo model, we discuss how this model had been used to make a successful prediction of cycle~24, on the assumption…
The sunspot cycle is the magnetic cycle of the Sun produced by the dynamo process. A central idea of the solar dynamo is that the toroidal and the poloidal magnetic fields of the Sun sustain each other. We discuss the relevant observational…
An explanation is suggested for the north-south asymmetry of the polar magnetic field reversal in the current cycle of solar activity. The contribution of the Babcock-Leighton mechanism to the poloidal field generation is estimated using…
The Sun is a magnetic star whose cyclic activity is thought to be linked to internal dynamo mechanisms. A combination of numerical modelling with various levels of complexity is an efficient and accurate tool to investigate such intricate…
The problem of prediction of a given time series is examined on the basis of recent nonlinear dynamics theories. Particular attention is devoted to forecast the amplitude and phase of one of the most common solar indicator activity, the…
The predictability, or lack thereof, of the solar cycle is governed by numerous separate physical processes that act in unison in the interior of the Sun. Magnetic flux transport and the finite time delay it introduces, specifically in the…
Solar activity cycle varies in amplitude. The last Cycle 24 is the weakest in the past century. Sun's activity dominates Earth's space environment. The frequency and intensity of the Sun's activity are accordant with the solar cycle. Hence…
The solar dynamo is essentially a cyclic process in which the toroidal component of the magnetic field is converted into the poloidal one and vice versa. This cyclic loop is disturbed by some nonlinear and stochastic processes mainly…
The magnetic activity of the Sun, as manifested in the sunspot cycle, originates deep within its convection zone through a dynamo mechanism which involves non-trivial interactions between the plasma and magnetic field in the solar interior.…
The prediction of the strength of future solar cycles is of interest because of its practical significance for space weather and as a test of our theoretical understanding of the solar cycle. The Babcock-Leighton mechanism allows…
The inherent stochastic and nonlinear nature of the solar dynamo makes the strength of the solar cycles vary in a wide range, making it difficult to predict the strength of an upcoming solar cycle. Recently, our work has shown that by using…
The key elements of the Babcock-Leighton dynamos are the generation of poloidal field through decay and dispersal of tilted bipolar active regions and the generation of toroidal field through the observed differential rotation. These models…
We discuss a prediction of the solar activity on a short time-scale applying the method based on a combination of a nonlinear mean-field dynamo model and the artificial neural network. The artificial neural network which serves as a…