Related papers: Honest Bayesian confidence sets for the L2-norm
We consider the problem of constructing Bayesian based confidence sets for linear functionals in the inverse Gaussian white noise model. We work with a scale of Gaussian priors indexed by a regularity hyper-parameter and apply the…
We consider the problem of constructing honest and adaptive confidence sets in Lp-loss (with p>=1 and p < infinity) over sets of Sobolev-type classes, in the setting of non-parametric Gaussian regression. The objective is to adapt the…
The problem of constructing confidence sets that are adaptive in L^2-loss over a continuous scale of Sobolev classes of probability densities is considered. Adaptation holds, where possible, with respect to both the radius of the Sobolev…
We study empirical and hierarchical Bayes approaches to the problem of estimating an infinite-dimensional parameter in mildly ill-posed inverse problems. We consider a class of prior distributions indexed by a hyperparameter that quantifies…
We investigate the credible sets and marginal credible intervals resulting from the horseshoe prior in the sparse multivariate normal means model. We do so in an adaptive setting without assuming knowledge of the sparsity level (number of…
We construct confidence sets for the regression function in nonparametric binary regression with an unknown design density. These confidence sets are adaptive in $L^2$ loss over a continuous class of Sobolev type spaces. Adaptation holds in…
We study the stability of posterior predictive inferences to the specification of the likelihood model and perturbations of the data generating process. In modern big data analyses, useful broad structural judgements may be elicited from…
We consider the setting of linear regression in high dimension. We focus on the problem of constructing adaptive and honest confidence sets for the sparse parameter \theta, i.e. we want to construct a confidence set for theta that contains…
In the sparse normal means model, coverage of adaptive Bayesian posterior credible sets associated to spike and slab prior distributions is considered. The key sparsity hyperparameter is calibrated via marginal maximum likelihood empirical…
Certifiable, adaptive uncertainty estimates for unknown quantities are an essential ingredient of sequential decision-making algorithms. Standard approaches rely on problem-dependent concentration results and are limited to a specific…
Standard evaluations of Bayesian deep learning methods assume that metric estimates are reliable, but we show this assumption fails under data scarcity. Method rankings are not only unreliable at small $n$, but also dataset-dependent in…
We consider the problem of Bayesian regression with trustworthy uncertainty quantification. We define that the uncertainty quantification is trustworthy if the ground truth can be captured by intervals dependent on the predictive…
We investigate the frequentist coverage of Bayesian credible sets in a nonparametric setting. We consider a scale of priors of varying regularity and choose the regularity by an empirical Bayes method. Next we consider a central set of…
We investigate two empirical Bayes methods and a hierarchical Bayes method for adapting the scale of a Gaussian process prior in a nonparametric regression model. We show that all methods lead to a posterior contraction rate that adapts to…
In many statistical problems, stochastic signals can be represented as a sequence of noisy wavelet coefficients. In this paper, we develop general empirical Bayes methods for the estimation of true signal. Our estimators approximate certain…
We empirically show that Bayesian inference can be inconsistent under misspecification in simple linear regression problems, both in a model averaging/selection and in a Bayesian ridge regression setting. We use the standard linear model,…
This manuscript studies a general approach to construct confidence sets for the solution of stochastic optimization, rendering empirical risk minimization as special cases. Statistical inference for stochastic optimization poses significant…
In the present note we consider the problem of constructing honest and adaptive confidence sets for the matrix completion problem. For the Bernoulli model with known variance of the noise we provide a realizable method for constructing…
Multi-level normal hierarchical models, also interpreted as mixed effects models, play an important role in developing statistical theory in multi-parameter estimation for a wide range of applications. In this article, we propose a novel…
This paper develops inferential methods for a very general class of ill-posed models in econometrics encompassing the nonparametric instrumental variable regression, various functional regressions, and the density deconvolution. We focus on…