Related papers: Honest Bayesian confidence sets for the L2-norm
Comparison of appropriate models to describe observational data is a fundamental task of science. The Bayesian model evidence, or marginal likelihood, is a computationally challenging, yet crucial, quantity to estimate to perform Bayesian…
We consider learning methods based on the regularization of a convex empirical risk by a squared Hilbertian norm, a setting that includes linear predictors and non-linear predictors through positive-definite kernels. In order to go beyond…
Hierarchical Bayesian models are increasingly used in large, inhomogeneous complex network dynamical systems by modeling parameters as draws from a hyperparameter-governed distribution. However, theoretical guarantees for these estimates as…
The nonparametric regression model with normal errors has been extensively studied, both from the frequentist and Bayesian viewpoint. A central result in Bayesian nonparametrics is that under assumptions on the prior, the data-generating…
This paper develops a Bayesian approach for assessing equivalence and non-inferiority hypotheses in two-arm trials using relative belief ratios. A relative belief ratio is a measure of statistical evidence and can indicate evidence either…
Under model misspecification, it is known that Bayesian posteriors often do not properly quantify uncertainty about true or pseudo-true parameters. Even more fundamentally, misspecification leads to a lack of reproducibility in the sense…
We propose a novel Bayesian approach to the problem of variable selection in multiple linear regression models. In particular, we present a hierarchical setting which allows for direct specification of a-priori beliefs about the number of…
The goal of confidence-set learning in the binary classification setting is to construct two sets, each with a specific probability guarantee to cover a class. An observation outside the overlap of the two sets is deemed to be from one of…
In the setting of nonparametric multivariate regression with unknown error variance, we study asymptotic properties of a Bayesian method for estimating a regression function f and its mixed partial derivatives. We use a random series of…
Bayesian model comparison is often based on the posterior distribution over the set of compared models. This distribution is often observed to concentrate on a single model even when other measures of model fit or forecasting ability…
We study the asymptotic frequentist coverage of credible sets based on a novel Bayesian approach for a multiple linear regression model under variable selection. We initially ignore the issue of variable selection, which allows us to put a…
We consider situations in Bayesian analysis where we have a family of priors $\nu_h$ on the parameter $\theta$, where $h$ varies continuously over a space $\mathcal{H}$, and we deal with two related problems. The first involves sensitivity…
The linearised Laplace method for estimating model uncertainty has received renewed attention in the Bayesian deep learning community. The method provides reliable error bars and admits a closed-form expression for the model evidence,…
We introduce $\textit{Backward Conformal Prediction}$, a method that guarantees conformal coverage while providing flexible control over the size of prediction sets. Unlike standard conformal prediction, which fixes the coverage level and…
Bayesian inference promises a framework for principled uncertainty quantification of neural network predictions. Barriers to adoption include the difficulty of fully characterizing posterior distributions on network parameters and the…
The posterior distribution in a nonparametric inverse problem is shown to contract to the true parameter at a rate that depends on the smoothness of the parameter, and the smoothness and scale of the prior. Correct combinations of these…
Now that Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become widely used, an appreciation is developing of just how critical an awareness of the sensitivity and robustness of certain target variables are to changes in the model. When time resources are…
Constructing valid confidence sets is a crucial task in statistical inference, yet traditional methods often face challenges when dealing with complex models or limited observed sample sizes. These challenges are frequently encountered in…
A multi-fidelity simulator is a numerical model, in which one of the inputs controls a trade-off between the realism and the computational cost of the simulation. Our goal is to estimate the probability of exceeding a given threshold on a…
Modern neural networks have found to be miscalibrated in terms of confidence calibration, i.e., their predicted confidence scores do not reflect the observed accuracy or precision. Recent work has introduced methods for post-hoc confidence…