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We compute the value of a variance swap when the underlying is modeled as a Markov process time changed by a L\'{e}vy subordinator. In this framework, the underlying may exhibit jumps with a state-dependent L\'{e}vy measure, local…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2013-07-03 Matthew Lorig , Oriol Lozano Carbasse , Rafael Mendoza-Arriaga

We introduce a simple model for equity index derivatives. The model generalizes well known L\`evy Normal Tempered Stable processes (e.g. NIG and VG) with time dependent parameters. It accurately fits Equity index implied volatility surfaces…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2022-01-04 Michele Azzone , Roberto Baviera

We propose model-free (nonparametric) estimators of the volatility of volatility and leverage effect using high-frequency observations of short-dated options. At each point in time, we integrate available options into estimates of the…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-01-24 Carsten H. Chong , Viktor Todorov

Electric power generation, transmission, and distribution systems are attracting a large amount of interest from researchers with the development of the smart grid technologies. A smart grid aims at effective control and conditioning of the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-09-01 Abhishek Tyagi , Ram Bhagat

Accurate prediction of electricity prices is crucial for stakeholders in the energy market, particularly for grid operators, energy producers, and consumers. This study focuses on developing a predictive model leveraging Long Short-Term…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-21 Salih Salihoglu , Ibrahim Ahmed , Afshin Asadi

We examine a general multi-factor model for commodity spot prices and futures valuation. We extend the multi-factor long-short model in Schwartz and Smith (2000) and Yan (2002) in two important aspects: firstly we allow for both the long…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2011-05-31 Gareth W. Peters , Mark Briers , Pavel V. Shevchenko , Arnaud Doucet

Stochastic Volterra equations (SVEs) serve as mathematical models for the time evolutions of random systems with memory effects and irregular behaviour. We introduce neural stochastic Volterra equations as a physics-inspired architecture,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-30 Martin Bergerhausen , David J. Prömel , David Scheffels

This paper develops a coupled model for day-ahead electricity prices and average daily temperature which allows to model quanto weather and energy derivatives. These products have gained on popularity as they enable to hedge against both…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2024-04-22 Aurélien Alfonsi , Nerea Vadillo

We model the price of a stock via a Lang\'{e}vin equation with multi-dimensional fluctuations coupled in the price and in time. We generalize previous models in that we assume that the fluctuations conditioned on the time step are compound…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2008-12-10 Przemyslaw Repetowicz , Peter Richmond

In the paper we study stochastic convolution appearing in Volterra equation driven by so called L\'evy process. By L\'evy process we mean a process with homogeneous independent increments, continuous in probability and cadlag.

Probability · Mathematics 2007-05-23 Anna Karczewska

Electricity market price predictions enable energy market participants to shape their consumption or supply while meeting their economic and environmental objectives. By utilizing the basic properties of the supply-demand matching process…

Applications · Statistics 2019-06-11 Ana Radovanovic , Tommaso Nesti , Bokan Chen

Applications of the quantum algorithm for Monte Carlo simulation to pricing of financial derivatives have been discussed in previous papers. However, up to now, the pricing model discussed in such papers is Black-Scholes model, which is…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2020-07-06 Kazuya Kaneko , Koichi Miyamoto , Naoyuki Takeda , Kazuyoshi Yoshino

Increased penetration of wind energy will make electricity market prices more volatile. As a result, market participants will bear increased financial risks, which impact investment decisions and in turn, makes it harder to achieve…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-04-16 Khaled Alshehri , Subhonmesh Bose , Tamer Başar

Recent developments on financial markets have revealed the limits of Brownian motion pricing models when they are applied to actual markets. L\'evy processes, that admit jumps over time, have been found more useful for applications. Thus,…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-09-16 Rui Sá Pereira , Evelina Shamarova

Most energy and commodity markets exhibit mean-reversion and occasional distinctive price spikes, which results in demand for derivative products which protect the holder against high prices. To this end, in this paper we present exact and…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2021-04-23 Nicola Cufaro Petroni , Piergiacomo Sabino

This paper proposes an agent-based model that combines both spot and balancing electricity markets. From this model, we develop a multi-agent simulation to study the integration of the consumers' flexibility into the system. Our study…

Systems and Control · Computer Science 2018-02-13 Florian Kühnlenz , Pedro H. J. Nardelli , Santtu Karhinen , Rauli Svento

We propose a new financial model, the stochastic volatility model with sticky drawdown and drawup processes (SVSDU model), which enables us to capture the features of winning and losing streaks that are common across financial markets but…

Mathematical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-03-20 Yuhao Liu , Pingping Jiang , Gongqiu Zhang

This paper explores the application of Machine Learning techniques for pricing high-dimensional options within the framework of the Uncertain Volatility Model (UVM). The UVM is a robust framework that accounts for the inherent…

Computational Finance · Quantitative Finance 2025-06-06 Ludovic Goudenege , Andrea Molent , Antonino Zanette

The stochastic differential equation (SDE)-based random process models of volatile renewable energy sources (RESs) jointly capture the evolving probability distribution and temporal correlation in continuous time. It has enabled recent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-12 Yiwei Qiu , Jin Lin , Zhipeng Zhou , Ningyi Dai , Feng Liu , Yonghua Song

We model the logarithm of the price (log-price) of a financial asset as a random variable obtained by projecting an operator stable random vector with a scaling index matrix $\underline{\underline{E}}$ onto a non-random vector. The scaling…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-06-26 Przemysław Repetowicz , Peter Richmond