Related papers: Modelling energy spot prices by volatility modulat…
This paper presents a comparative analysis of univariate and multivariate GARCH-family models and machine learning algorithms in modeling and forecasting the volatility of major energy commodities: crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, and…
A new robust stochastic volatility (SV) model having Student-t marginals is proposed. Our process is defined through a linear normal regression model driven by a latent gamma process that controls temporal dependence. This gamma process is…
We consider stochastic volatility models under parameter uncertainty and investigate how model derived prices of European options are affected. We let the pricing parameters evolve dynamically in time within a specified region, and…
We investigate exponential stock models driven by tempered stable processes, which constitute a rich family of purely discontinuous L\'{e}vy processes. With a view of option pricing, we provide a systematic analysis of the existence of…
For a converging sequence of exponential L\'evy models, we give conditions under which the associated sequence of option prices converges. We also study the behaviour of the prices when no such convergence holds. We then consider two…
A study on power market price forecasting by deep learning is presented. As one of the most successful deep learning frameworks, the LSTM (Long short-term memory) neural network is utilized. The hourly prices data from the New England and…
In this paper, we show the existence of unique Malliavin differentiable solutions to SDE`s driven by a fractional Brownian motion with Hurst parameter H<1/2 and singular, unbounded drift vector fields, for which we also prove a stability…
This project attempts to address the problem of asset pricing in a financial market, where the interest rates and volatilities exhibit regime switching. This is an extension of the Black-Scholes model. Studies of Markov-modulated regime…
We introduce a fast and flexible Machine Learning (ML) framework for pricing derivative products whose valuation depends on volatility surfaces. By parameterizing volatility surfaces with the 5-parameter stochastic volatility inspired (SVI)…
We tackle the calibration of the so-called Stochastic-Local Volatility (SLV) model. This is the class of financial models that combines the local and stochastic volatility features and has been subject of the attention by many researchers…
We present a new class of Bayesian dynamic models for bivariate price-realized volatility time series in financial forecasting. A novel dynamic gamma process model adopted for realized volatility is integrated with traditional Bayesian…
This paper proposes to model asset price dynamics with a mixture of diffusion processes where the instantaneous volatility of the underlying diffusion process contains a random vector. The marginal probability distributions of the proposed…
We study multidimensional stochastic volatility models in which the volatility process is a positive continuous function of a continuous multidimensional Volterra process that can be not self-similar. The main results obtained in this paper…
In this paper, we show that a time-dependent local stochastic volatility (SLV) model can be reduced to a system of autonomous PDEs that can be solved using the Heat kernel, by means of the Wei-Norman factorization method and Lie algebraic…
We consider the pricing of energy spread options for spot prices following an exponential Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process driven by a sum of independent multivariate variance gamma processes, which gives rise to mean-reverting, infinite activity…
The large variability of renewable power sources is a central challenge in the transition to a sustainable energy system. Electricity markets are central for the coordination of electric power generation. These markets rely evermore on…
Recently, the volatility associated with marginal prices has increased due to large scale integration of renewable generation. Price volatility is undesirable from a consumer perspective. To address this issue, we present a framework for…
In this paper we propose a novel pricing-hedging framework for volatility derivatives which simultaneously takes into account rough volatility and volatility jumps. Our model directly targets the instantaneous variance of a risky asset and…
In the regime switching extension of Black-Scholes-Merton model of asset price dynamics, one assumes that the volatility coefficient evolves as a hidden pure jump process. Under the assumption of Markov regime switching, we have considered…
Polynomial processes have the property that expectations of polynomial functions (of degree $n$, say) of the future state of the process conditional on the current state are given by polynomials (of degree $\leq n$) of the current state.…