Related papers: Modelling energy spot prices by volatility modulat…
In this paper, we present a new bivariate model for the joint description of the Bitcoin prices and the media attention to Bitcoin. Our model is based on the class of the L\'evy processes and is able to realistically reproduce the jump-type…
The availability of accurate day-ahead electricity price forecasts is pivotal for electricity market participants. In the context of trade liberalisation and market harmonisation in the European markets, accurate price forecasting becomes…
We investigate high frequency price dynamics in foreign exchange market using data from Reuters information system (the dataset has been provided to us by Ols en & Associates). In our analysis we show that a na\"ive approach to the…
Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is increasingly difficult in markets characterised by extreme volatility, frequent price spikes, and rapid structural shifts. Deep learning (DL) has been increasingly adopted in EPF due to its…
We consider a novel use case for the Double Heston model (Christoffersen et al,, 2009), where the two Heston sub-variances have different spot/volatility correlations but the same volatility of volatility and mean reversion speed. This…
In this paper, an approach to evaluate the benefits of demand flexibility for Virtual Power Plants (VPPs) is presented. The flexible demands chosen in this study are part of a renewable energy source-based VPP that participates in Day-Ahead…
We study the time-fractional Ivancevic option pricing model and the coupled nonlinear volatility and option price model via both modulational instability (MI) analysis and direct simulations. For the coupled volatility and option pricing…
Accurate prediction of electricity prices plays an essential role in the electricity market. To reflect the uncertainty of electricity prices, price intervals are predicted. This paper proposes a novel prediction interval construction…
We consider option pricing using a discrete-time Markov switching stochastic volatility with co-jump model, which can model volatility clustering and varying mean-reversion speeds of volatility. For pricing European options, we develop a…
We present an approach for pricing European call options in presence of proportional transaction costs, when the stock price follows a general exponential L\'{e}vy process. The model is a generalization of the celebrated work of Davis,…
We construct models for the pricing and risk management of inflation-linked derivatives. The models are rational in the sense that linear payoffs written on the consumer price index have prices that are rational functions of the state…
Building on a prominent agent-based model, we present a new structural stochastic volatility asset pricing model of fundamentalists vs. chartists where the prices are determined based on excess demand. Specifically, this allows for…
In this paper we show that Hilbert space-valued stochastic models are robust with respect to perturbation, due to measurement or approximation errors, in the underlying volatility process. Within the class of stochastic volatility modulated…
Electricity price is a key factor affecting the decision-making for all market participants. Accurate forecasting of electricity prices is very important and is also very challenging since electricity price is highly volatile due to various…
We consider stochastic volatility dynamics driven by a general H\"older continuous Volterra-type noise and with unbounded drift. For these so-called SVV-models, we consider the explicit computation of quadratic hedging strategies. While the…
Energy is a critical driver of modern economic systems. Accurate energy price forecasting plays an important role in supporting decision-making at various levels, from operational purchasing decisions at individual business organizations to…
We propose a new estimator of high-dimensional spot volatility matrices satisfying a low-rank plus sparse structure from noisy and asynchronous high-frequency data collected for an ultra-large number of assets. The noise processes are…
We provide series expansions for the tempered stable densities and for the price of European-style contracts in the exponential L\'evy model driven by the tempered stable process. These formulas recover several popular option pricing…
This thesis develops a new framework for modelling price processes in finance, such as an equity price or foreign exchange rate. This can be related to the conventional Ito calculus-based framework through the time integral of a price's…
In this paper the zero vanna implied volatility approximation for the price of freshly minted volatility swaps is generalised to seasoned volatility swaps. We also derive how volatility swaps can be hedged using a strip of vanilla options…