Related papers: Detecting a trend change in cross-border epidemic …
Pandemics have the potential to cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. In this paper, we model the Influenza Pandemic of 2009. We propose a hybrid model to determine how the pandemic spreads through the world. The…
In this paper, we study how interactions between populations impact epidemic spread. We extend the classical SEIR model to include both integration-based disease transmission simulation and population flow. Our model differs from existing…
Pandemics can cause immense disruption and damage to communities and societies. Thus far, modeling of pandemics has focused on either large-scale difference equation models like the SIR and the SEIR models, or detailed micro-level…
Epidemic spread on networks is one of the most studied dynamics in network science and has important implications in real epidemic scenarios. Nonetheless, the dynamics of real epidemics and how it is affected by the underline structure of…
In this paper, the authors develop a method of detecting correlations between epidemic patterns in different regions that are due to human movement and introduce a null model in which the travel-induced correlations are cancelled. They…
Transportation networks play a critical part in the spread of infectious diseases between populations. In this work, we define a networked susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered epidemic process with loss of immunity over time (SEIRS) that…
Throughout the course of an epidemic, the rate at which disease spreads varies with behavioral changes, the emergence of new disease variants, and the introduction of mitigation policies. Estimating such changes in transmission rates can…
In a metapopulation network, infectious diseases spread widely because of the travel of individuals. In the present study, we consider a modified metapopulation Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model with a latent period, which we call…
The SEIRS model, an extension of the SEIR model for analyzing and predicting the spread of virus infection, was further extended to consider the movement of people across regions. In contrast to previous models that con-sider the risk of…
One of the most effective strategies to mitigate the global spreading of a pandemic (e.g., COVID-19) is to shut down international airports. From a network theory perspective, this is since international airports and flights, essentially…
Background: The global spread of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic has clearly shown the importance of considering the long-range transportation networks in the understanding of emerging diseases outbreaks. The…
We study the effect of external infection sources on phase transitions in epidemic processes. In particular, we consider an epidemic spreading on a network via the SIS/SIR dynamics, which in addition is aided by external agents - sources…
We study the dynamics of epidemic and reaction-diffusion processes in metapopulation models with heterogeneous connectivity pattern. In SIR-like processes, along with the standard local epidemic threshold, the system exhibits a global…
We study an epidemic propagation between $M$ population centra. The novelty of the model is in analyzing the migration of host (remaining in the same centre) and guest (migrated to another centre) populations separately. Even in the…
We develop a multiple compartment Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to analyze the spread of several infectious diseases through different geographic areas. Additionally, we propose a data-quality sensitive optimization framework…
Disease spreading through human travel networks has been a topic of great interest in recent years, as witnessed during outbreaks of influenza A (H1N1) or SARS pandemics. One way to stop spreading over the airline network are travel…
As the world grows increasingly connected, infectious disease transmission and outbreaks have become a pressing global concern for public health officials and policymakers. While policy interventions to contain and prevent the spread of…
Human mobility contributes to the fast spatio-temporal propagation of infectious diseases. During an outbreak, monitoring the infection situation on either side of an international border is very crucial as there is always a higher risk of…
In the standard Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) and Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Removed (SEIR) models, the peak of infected individuals coincides with the in ection point of removed individuals. Nevertheless, a survey based on the data…
We study how international flights can facilitate the spread of an epidemic to a worldwide scale. We combine an infrastructure network of flight connections with a population density dataset to derive the mobility network, and then we…