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Two firms are engaged in a competitive prediction task. Each firm has two sources of data -- labeled historical data and unlabeled inference-time data -- and uses the former to derive a prediction model, and the latter to make predictions…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-03-27 Yotam Gafni , Ronen Gradwohl , Moshe Tennenholtz

Machine Learning (ML) increasingly informs the allocation of opportunities to individuals and communities in areas such as lending, education, employment, and beyond. Such decisions often impact their subjects' future characteristics and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-03 David Lindner , Hoda Heidari , Andreas Krause

Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities.…

Applications · Statistics 2022-02-09 Fotios Petropoulos , Daniele Apiletti , Vassilios Assimakopoulos , Mohamed Zied Babai , Devon K. Barrow , Souhaib Ben Taieb , Christoph Bergmeir , Ricardo J. Bessa , Jakub Bijak , John E. Boylan , Jethro Browell , Claudio Carnevale , Jennifer L. Castle , Pasquale Cirillo , Michael P. Clements , Clara Cordeiro , Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira , Shari De Baets , Alexander Dokumentov , Joanne Ellison , Piotr Fiszeder , Philip Hans Franses , David T. Frazier , Michael Gilliland , M. Sinan Gönül , Paul Goodwin , Luigi Grossi , Yael Grushka-Cockayne , Mariangela Guidolin , Massimo Guidolin , Ulrich Gunter , Xiaojia Guo , Renato Guseo , Nigel Harvey , David F. Hendry , Ross Hollyman , Tim Januschowski , Jooyoung Jeon , Victor Richmond R. Jose , Yanfei Kang , Anne B. Koehler , Stephan Kolassa , Nikolaos Kourentzes , Sonia Leva , Feng Li , Konstantia Litsiou , Spyros Makridakis , Gael M. Martin , Andrew B. Martinez , Sheik Meeran , Theodore Modis , Konstantinos Nikolopoulos , Dilek Önkal , Alessia Paccagnini , Anastasios Panagiotelis , Ioannis Panapakidis , Jose M. Pavía , Manuela Pedio , Diego J. Pedregal , Pierre Pinson , Patrícia Ramos , David E. Rapach , J. James Reade , Bahman Rostami-Tabar , Michał Rubaszek , Georgios Sermpinis , Han Lin Shang , Evangelos Spiliotis , Aris A. Syntetos , Priyanga Dilini Talagala , Thiyanga S. Talagala , Len Tashman , Dimitrios Thomakos , Thordis Thorarinsdottir , Ezio Todini , Juan Ramón Trapero Arenas , Xiaoqian Wang , Robert L. Winkler , Alisa Yusupova , Florian Ziel

The intersection of causal inference and machine learning for decision-making is rapidly expanding, but the default decision criterion remains an \textit{average} of individual causal outcomes across a population. In practice, various…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-08 Wenshuo Guo , Michael I. Jordan , Angela Zhou

Machine learning models increasingly function as representational systems, yet the philosoph- ical assumptions underlying their internal structures remain largely unexamined. This paper develops a structuralist decision framework for…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-11-25 Yildiz Culcu

In-context learning (ICL) enables large language models to perform new tasks by conditioning on a sequence of examples. Most prior work reasonably and intuitively assumes that which examples are chosen has a far greater effect on…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-11-14 Warren Li , Yiqian Wang , Zihan Wang , Jingbo Shang

This paper presents a general framework about what is a decision problem. Our motivation is related to the fact that decision analysis and operational research are structured (as disciplines) around classes of methods, while instead we…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-01-10 Alberto Colorni , Alexis Tsoukiàs

The predictions from an accurate prognostic model can be of great interest to patients and clinicians. When predictions are reported to individuals, they may decide to take action to improve their health or they may simply be comforted by…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2019-09-10 Michael C Sachs , Arvid Sjölander , Erin E Gabriel

Modern processors such as ARMv8 and RISC-V allow executions in which independent instructions within a process may be reordered. To cope with such phenomena, so called promising semantics have been developed, which permit threads to read…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2022-11-30 Heike Wehrheim , Lara Bargmann , Brijesh Dongol

We present a formal language for specifying qualitative preferences over temporal goals and a preference-based planning method in stochastic systems. Using automata-theoretic modeling, the proposed specification allows us to express…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-03-29 Jie Fu

Machine learning algorithms for prediction are increasingly being used in critical decisions affecting human lives. Various fairness formalizations, with no firm consensus yet, are employed to prevent such algorithms from systematically…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2018-05-29 Pratik Gajane , Mykola Pechenizkiy

When users stand to gain from certain predictions, they are prone to act strategically to obtain favorable predictive outcomes. Whereas most works on strategic classification consider user actions that manifest as feature modifications, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-25 Guy Horowitz , Yonatan Sommer , Moran Koren , Nir Rosenfeld

Choice constructs are an important part of the language of logic programming, yet the study of their semantics has been a challenging task. So far, only two-valued semantics have been studied, and the different proposals for such semantics…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-08-01 Jesse Heyninck

In machine learning or scientific computing, model performance is measured with an objective function. But why choose one objective over another? Information theory gives one answer: To maximize the information in the model, select the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Timothy O. Hodson , Thomas M. Over , Tyler J. Smith , Lucy M. Marshall

Decision making under uncertainty is at the heart of any autonomous system acting with imperfect information. The cost of solving the decision making problem is exponential in the action and observation spaces, thus rendering it unfeasible…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-06-18 Tom Yotam , Vadim Indelman

Options represent a framework for reasoning across multiple time scales in reinforcement learning (RL). With the recent active interest in the unsupervised learning paradigm in the RL research community, the option framework was adapted to…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Djordje Božić , Predrag Tadić , Mladen Nikolić

Reinforcement Learning formalises an embodied agent's interaction with the environment through observations, rewards and actions. But where do the actions come from? Actions are often considered to represent something external, such as the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-10-01 Elliot Catt , Marcus Hutter , Joel Veness

In a game of persuasion with evidence, a sender has private information. By presenting evidence on the information, the sender wishes to persuade a receiver to take a single action (e.g., hire a job candidate, or convict a defendant). The…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2024-09-10 Martin Hoefer , Pasin Manurangsi , Alexandros Psomas

This study conducts a benchmarking study, comparing 23 different statistical and machine learning methods in a credit scoring application. In order to do so, the models' performance is evaluated over four different data sets in combination…

Econometrics · Economics 2019-07-31 Anna Stelzer

Preferences play a key role in determining what goals/constraints to satisfy when not all constraints can be satisfied simultaneously. In this work, we study preference-based planning in a stochastic system modeled as a Markov decision…

Formal Languages and Automata Theory · Computer Science 2022-03-28 Abhishek Ninad Kulkarni , Jie Fu