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This paper develops an optimal Chernoff type bound for the probabilities of large deviations of sums $\sum_{k=1}^n f (X_k)$ where $f$ is a real-valued function and $(X_k)_{k \in \mathbb{Z}_{\ge 0}}$ is a finite state Markov chain with an…

The phenomenon of superconvergence is proved for all freely infinitely divisible distributions. Precisely, suppose that the partial sums of a sequence of free identically distributed, infinitesimal random variables converge in distribution…

We consider the probability that a weighted sum of $n$ i.i.d. random variables $X_j$, $j = 1, . . ., n$, with stretched exponential tails is larger than its expectation and determine the rate of its decay, under suitable conditions on the…

Gau\ss (1823) proved a sharp upper bound on the probability that a random variable falls outside a symmetric interval around zero when its distribution is unimodal with mode at zero. For the class of all distributions with mean at zero,…

In this paper, we develop a general machinery for finding explicit uniform probability and moment bounds on sub-additive positive functionals of random processes. Using the developed general technique, we derive uniform bounds on the…

Random walks on expanders play a crucial role in Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms, derandomization, graph theory, and distributed computing. A desirable property is that they are rapidly mixing, which is equivalent to having a spectral…

We re-examine a lower-tail upper bound for the random variable $$X=\prod_{i=1}^{\infty}\min\left\{\sum_{k=1}^iE_k,1\right\},$$ where $E_1,E_2,\ldots\stackrel{iid}\sim\text{Exp}(1)$. This bound has found use in root-finding and seed-finding…

Let $(S_0,S_1,...)$ be a supermartingale relative to a nondecreasing sequence of $\sigma$-algebras $H_{\le0},H_{\le1},...$, with $S_0\le0$ almost surely (a.s.) and differences $X_i:=S_i-S_{i-1}$. Suppose that $X_i\le d$ and $\mathsf…

We consider uniform random permutations in proper substitution-closed classes and study their limiting behavior in the sense of permutons. The limit depends on the generating series of the simple permutations in the class. Under a mild…

A novel, non-trivial, probabilistic upper bound on the entropy of an unknown one-dimensional distribution, given the support of the distribution and a sample from that distribution, is presented. No knowledge beyond the support of the…

Verifying uniform conditions over continuous spaces through random sampling is fundamental in machine learning and control theory, yet classical coverage analyses often yield conservative bounds, particularly at small failure probabilities.…

We consider a supercritical Galton-Watson process $Z_n$ whose offspring distribution has mean $m>1$ and is bounded by some $d\in \{2,3,\ldots\}$. As well-known, the associated martingale $W_n=Z_n/m^n$ converges a.s. to some nonnegative…

In this work, we prove the joint convergence in distribution of $q$ variables modulo one obtained as partial sums of a sequence of i.i.d. square integrable random variables multiplied by a common factor given by some function of an…

Let $X_1, X_2,\dots$ be a short-memory linear process of random variables. For $1\leq q<2$, let $\cF$ be a bounded set of real-valued functions on $[0,1]$ with finite $q$-variation. It is proved that…

In this paper, I present a completely new type of upper and lower bounds on the right-tail probabilities of continuous random variables with unbounded support and with semi-bounded support from the left. The presented upper and lower…

Ratios of integrals can be bounded in terms of ratios of integrands under certain monotonicity conditions. This result, related with L'H\^{o}pital's monotone rule, can be used to obtain sharp bounds for cumulative distribution functions. We…

Let $t$ be random and uniformly distributed in the interval $[T,2T]$, and consider the quantity $N(t+1/\log T) - N(t)$, a count of zeros of the Riemann zeta function in a box of height $1/\log T$. Conditioned on the Riemann hypothesis, we…

Let $P$ be a polynomial of degree $d$ in independent Bernoulli random variables which has zero mean and unit variance. The Bonami hypercontractivity bound implies that the probability that $|P| > t$ decays exponentially in $t^{2/d}$.…

Estimation of the complete distribution of a random variable is a useful primitive for both manual and automated decision making. This problem has received extensive attention in the i.i.d. setting, but the arbitrary data dependent setting…

We consider the large deviations at the order of the variance for the central value of a family of $L$-functions among the members with bounded discriminant. When there is an upper bound on an integer moment of the central value twisted by…