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A discrete time branching process where the offspring distribution is generation-dependent, and the number of reproductive individuals is controlled by a random mechanism is considered. This model is a Markov chain but, in general, the…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-01-30 Miguel González , Carmen Minuesa , Manuel Mota , Inés del Puerto , Alfonso Ramos

Null models of binary phylogenetic trees are useful for testing hypotheses on real world phylogenies. In this paper we consider phylogenies as binary trees without edge lengths together with a sampling measure and encode them as algebraic…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-17 Josué Nussbaumer , Anita Winter

Comparative and evolutive ecologists are interested in the distribution of quantitative traits among related species. The classical framework for these distributions consists of a random process running along the branches of a phylogenetic…

Applications · Statistics 2017-08-24 Paul Bastide , Mahendra Mariadassou , Stéphane Robin

To study later spatial evolutionary games based on the multitype contact process, we first focus in this paper on the conditions for survival/extinction in the presence of only one strategy, in which case our model consists of a variant of…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-07-09 Jonas Köppl , Nicolas Lanchier , Max Mercer

We consider the diffusion approximation of branching processes in random environment (BPREs). This diffusion approximation is similar to and mathematically more tractable than BPREs. We obtain the exact asymptotic behavior of the survival…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-10-02 Christian Böinghoff , Martin Hutzenthaler

In this study we extend the results of Kurtz (1970,1971) to show the weak convergence of epidemic processes that include explicit time dependence, specifically where the transmission parameter,$\beta(t)$, carries a time dependency. We first…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-01-08 Alun Lloyd , Yuan Zhang

Genetic algorithms based on natural selection and minimal fluctuations have been applied to model physical and biological systems. Critical exponents have been extracted via computational simulations of nucleation for colossal…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 A. Barrañón , J. A. López , C. O. Dorso

Given a square box $\Lambda_n\subseteq\mathbb Z^2$ of side length $L^n$ with $L,n>1$, we study hierarchical random fields $\{\phi_x\colon x\in\Lambda_n\}$ with law proportional to ${\rm…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-05-15 Marek Biskup , Haiyu Huang

We propose and study a fully efficient method to estimate associations of an exposure with disease incidence when both, incident cases and prevalent cases, i.e. individuals who were diagnosed with the disease at some prior time point and…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-20 Marlena Maziarz , Yukun Liu , Jing Qin , Ruth Pfeiffer

Lattice birth-and-death Markov dynamics of particle systems with spins from the set of non-negative integers are constructed as unique solutions to certain stochastic equations. Pathwise uniqueness, strong existence, Markov property and…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-07-07 Viktor Bezborodov , Yuri Kondratiev , Oleksandr Kutoviy

We consider a supercritical branching process and define a contact tracing mechanism on its genealogical tree. We calculate the growth rate of the post tracing process, and give conditions under which the tracing is strong enough to drive…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-08-03 M. T. Barlow

In a recent paper in the Journal of Theoretical Probability Gong, Mao and Zhang, using the theory of Dirichlet forms, extended Karlin and McGregor's classical results on first-hitting times of a birth-death process on the nonnegative…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-01-01 Erik A. van Doorn

A stochastic genetic model for biological aging is introduced bridging the gap between the bit-string Penna model and the Pletcher-Neuhauser approach. The phenomenon of exponentially increasing mortality function at intermediate ages and…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 Zhi-Feng Huang , Dietrich Stauffer

We introduce a biologically natural, mathematically tractable model of random phylogenetic network to describe evolution in the presence of hybridization. One of the features of this model is that the hybridization rate of the lineages…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-02-27 François Bienvenu , Jean-Jil Duchamps

Recent evidence suggests that nongenetic (epigenetic) mechanisms play an important role at all stages of cancer evolution. In many cancers, these mechanisms have been observed to induce dynamic switching between two or more cell states,…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2023-06-16 Einar Bjarki Gunnarsson , Jasmine Foo , Kevin Leder

Let $T$ be the extinction moment of a critical branching process $Z=(Z_{n},n\geq 0) $ in a random environment specified by iid probability generating functions. We study the asymptotic behavior of the probability of extinction of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-09-08 V. A. Vatutin V. Wachtel

Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-02-23 Graham Brightwell , Thomas House , Malwina Luczak

This article is concerned with a version of the contact process with sexual reproduction on a graph with two levels of interactions modeling metapopulations. The population is spatially distributed into patches and offspring are produced in…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-04-08 Eric Foxall , Nicolas Lanchier

Generating function equation has been derived for the probability distribution of the number of nodes with $k \ge 0$ outgoing lines in randomly evolving special trees. The stochastic properties of end-nodes (k=0) have been analyzed, and it…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2007-05-23 L. Pal

Phylogenetics uses alignments of molecular sequence data to learn about evolutionary trees. Substitutions in sequences are modelled through a continuous-time Markov process, characterised by an instantaneous rate matrix, which standard…

Populations and Evolution · Quantitative Biology 2020-07-20 Naomi E. Hannaford , Sarah E. Heaps , Tom M. W. Nye , Tom A. Williams , T. Martin Embley