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We consider an epidemic change-point detection in a large class of causal time series models, including among other processes, AR($\infty$), ARCH($\infty$), TARCH($\infty$), ARMA-GARCH. A test statistic based on the Gaussian quasi-maximum…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-05-31 Mamadou Lamine Diop , William Kengne

Change-point detection and locally stationary time series modeling are two major approaches for the analysis of non-stationary data. The former aims to identify stationary phases by detecting abrupt changes in the dynamics of a time series…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-01-16 Wai Leong Ng , Xinyi Tang , Mun Lau Cheung , Jiacheng Gao , Chun Yip Yau , Holger Dette

Change point tests for abrupt changes in the mean of functional data, i.e., random elements in infinite-dimensional Hilbert spaces, are either based on dimension reduction techniques, e.g., based on principal components, or directly based…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-23 Claudia Kirch , Hedvika Ranošová , Martin Wendler

The detection of change-points in a spatially or time ordered data sequence is an important problem in many fields such as genetics and finance. We derive the asymptotic distribution of a statistic recently suggested for detecting…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2015-10-01 Gérard Biau , Kevin Bleakley , David Mason

This paper studies the unsupervised change point detection problem in time series of networks using the Separable Temporal Exponential-family Random Graph Model (STERGM). Inherently, dynamic network patterns are complex due to dyadic and…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-01 Yik Lun Kei , Hangjian Li , Yanzhen Chen , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

We consider the problem of change point detection for high-dimensional distributions in a location family when the dimension can be much larger than the sample size. In change point analysis, the widely used cumulative sum (CUSUM)…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-10-14 Mengjia Yu , Xiaohui Chen

The aim of sequential change-point detection is to issue an alarm when it is thought that certain probabilistic properties of the monitored observations have changed. This work is concerned with nonparametric, closed-end testing procedures…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-27 Ivan Kojadinovic , Ghislain Verdier

Detecting abrupt changes in the mean of a time series, so-called changepoints, is important for many applications. However, many procedures rely on the estimation of nuisance parameters (like long-run variance). Under the alternative (a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-08-14 Michal Pešta , Martin Wendler

This paper describes and compares several prominent single and multiple changepoint techniques for time series data. Due to their importance in inferential matters, changepoint research on correlated data has accelerated recently.…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-01-07 Xueheng Shi , Colin Gallagher , Robert Lund , Rebecca Killick

Change-point analysis is a flexible and computationally tractable tool for the analysis of times series data from systems that transition between discrete states and whose observables are corrupted by noise. The change-point algorithm is…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-05-22 Paul A. Wiggins , Colin H. LaMont

A simultaneous change-point detection and estimation in a piece-wise constant model is a common task in modern statistics. If, in addition, the whole estimation can be performed automatically, in just one single step without going through…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-16 Gabriela Ciuperca , Matúš Maciak

We consider the problem of quickest change-point detection in data streams. Classical change-point detection procedures, such as CUSUM, Shiryaev-Roberts and Posterior Probability statistics, are optimal only if the change-point model is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-06-13 Denis Volkhonskiy , Ilia Nouretdinov , Alexander Gammerman , Vladimir Vovk , Evgeny Burnaev

We investigate the power of the CUSUM test and the Wilcoxon change-point test for a shift in the mean of a process with long-range dependent noise. We derive analytiv formulas for the power of these tests under local alternatives. These…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-03-21 Herold Dehling , Aeneas Rooch , Murad S. Taqqu

We consider here together the inference questions and the change-point problem in Poisson autoregressions (see Tj{\o}stheim, 2012). The conditional mean (or intensity) of the process is involved as a non-linear function of it past values…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2013-05-09 Paul Doukhan , William Kengne

Detecting damage in critical structures using monitored data is a fundamental task of structural health monitoring, which is extremely important for maintaining structures' safety and life-cycle management. Based on statistical pattern…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-21 Xinyi Lei , Zhicheng Chen

This paper considers the change point detection problem under dependent samples. In particular, we provide performance guarantees for the MMD-CUSUM test under exponentially $\alpha$, $\beta$, and fast $\phi$-mixing processes, which…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2024-05-13 Hao Chen , Abhishek Gupta , Yin Sun , Ness Shroff

The detection of serial dependence in binary or binomial valued time series is difficult using standard time series methods, particularly when there are regression effects to be modelled. In this paper we derive score-type tests for…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-06-06 W. T. M. Dunsmuir , J. Y. He

This paper deals with the problem of testing for dispersion parameter change in discretely observed diffusion processes when the observations are contaminated by outliers. To lessen the impact of outliers, we first calculate residuals using…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-01 Junmo Song

Robust change-point detection for large-scale data streams has many real-world applications in industrial quality control, signal detection, biosurveillance. Unfortunately, it is highly non-trivial to develop efficient schemes due to three…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-18 Ruizhi Zhang , Yajun Mei , Jianjun Shi

Sequential change-point detection plays a critical role in numerous real-world applications, where timely identification of distributional shifts can greatly mitigate adverse outcomes. Classical methods commonly rely on parametric density…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-23 Wenbin Zhou , Liyan Xie , Zhigang Peng , Shixiang Zhu
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